RAVE

Weekly NFL Notes & Trends Wk #1

Thursday, September 9
MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS
Saints(-4, 52) The defending Super Bowl champ has opened at home the last six years. In those games, that host is 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS, with Pittsburgh field goal win over Tennessee the only pointspread blemish. The last three games have gone UNDER the total.
Saints are 21-32 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.
Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Sunday, September 12
CAROLINA at NY GIANTS
Giants(-7, 40) Home favorites of -6 to -9.5 own an impressive 26-6 SU & 19-13 ATS (59%) in the opening week of the NFL season this decade. However, the Giants are 15-21 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 35 instances. This will be the first regular season game at the Giants New Meadowlands home. Favorites opening a new NFL stadium: 6-5 SU, 3-8 ATS
Panthers are 34-23 ATS as an underdog the previous 57 instances.

MIAMI at BUFFALO
Dolphins(-3/-115, 38) The trend to consider in this game is that all divisional favorites of 3-points or less boast an incredible record 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS (82%) since 2000 on kickoff weekend.
Small Favorite Dominance: Divisional favorites of 1-3 points are 14-3 ATS on kickoff weekend since 2000.

ATLANTA at PITTSBURGH
Falcons(-1, 40) The first game in the suspension being served by Steelers’ QB Roethlisberger.
Road Favorites in NFL Week 1 facing a team that was .500 or better last season are on a 13-8 ATS (62%) run. One other thing to consider, Atlanta was one of the best poinstpread-covering teams in the NFL in 2010, going 11-5 ATS, while Pittsburgh was one of the worst, 5-10-1 ATS.

DETROIT at CHICAGO
Bears(-6½, 42½) Road underdogs of 3-1/2 points or more in divisional games of NFL’s opening week at 7-21 SU but 19-9 ATS (68%) since 2000.
Jay Cutler is 3-6 ATS when favored by 7 or more.

CINCINNATI at NEW ENGLAND
Patriots(-6, 44) When two Winning Teams from the prior year have played in Week 1, UNDER the total has gone 17-9 (65%) since ’03.
Bengals are 7-2 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

CLEVELAND at TAMPA BAY
Buccaneers (-2, 36) Home favorites of less than a field goal have been a solid bet in Week 1, going 10-4 SU & ATS (71%) since 2001.
The Buccaneers are 1-7 ATS at home under Raheem Morris.
Jake Delhomme is 32-19 ATS on the road.

DENVER at JACKSONVILLE
Jaguars (-1½, 41) JACKSONVILLE is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was JACKSONVILLE 18.8, OPPONENT 22.7.
The Jaguars are 14-9 ATS in September home games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 season openers.

INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON
Colts(-3/-115, 47) Indianapolis has won six straight games over the Texans and was 7-1 ATS on the road in the 2009 regular season. Keep an eye on this trend…All favorites of exactly 3-points boast a 29-10 SU & 21-12-5 ATS (64%) mark in Week 1 since 2000.
Texans are 8-1 ATS as home underdogs since October 2006 and 1-5 ATS on kickoff weekends since 2004.
Super Bowl Loser Syndrome: Super Bowl losers are 3-13 ATS in their first game the following season.

OAKLAND at TENNESSEE
Titans(-7, 41) Oakland has covered five of the last six games between these teams and is actually 12-6 ATS on the road versus conference foes since 2006.
Vince Young is 26-12 as a starter (24-14 ATS).

GREEN BAY at PHILADELPHIA
(PK, 46) Oddsmakers don’t know quite what to make of Philly at this point, setting this line up as a pick em’.
Aaron Rodgers is 6-3 ATS as an underdog.

SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE
49’ers(-2, 38) San Francisco playing as a 2-point road favorite, recall the trend from earlier, divisional favorites of 3-points or less boast an incredible record 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS (82%) since 2000 on kickoff weekend.
Mike Singletary is 7-2 ATS against divisional opponents.
Seahawks are 13-4 ATS in September home games since 2000.

ARIZONA at ST. LOUIS
Cardinals(-3½, 41) Oddsmakers seem a bit leery of Arizona at this point, installing the Cardinals as just 3-1/2 point favorites. St. Louis will be looking to get off to a better start than recent years, 1-10 ATS in the L3 September’s.
Matt Leinart is 9-4 ATS as a starter.

DALLAS at WASHINGTON
Cowboys(-3/-125, 43) The road team is on a 5-1 ATS run in this head-to-head series.
Tony Romo is 8-2 ATS as a starter in September.

Monday, September 13
BALTIMORE at NY JETS
Jets(-3/-105, 37½) Judging by the numbers, oddsmakers place these teams on equal levels, with only the 3-points for home field advantage separating them. The Jets are playing their first game in their New Meadowlands home.
Favorites opening a new NFL stadium: 6-5 SU, 3-8 ATS.
Rex Ryan was the defensive coordinator for the Ravens as recently as 2008.

SAN DIEGO at KANSAS CITY
Chargers(-6, 45) While it may be tough to stomach taking K.C. here as the 6-point dog, note that when the difference in the teams’ PPG Margin from the prior year is 10.0 or greater, the team with the worse differential owns an 19-12 ATS (61%) record in Week 1 since 2001.
Chiefs are 19-6 ATS in season openers at home since 1971.