I've taken a lot a flack this week about my picks and record. I could tell you all about it but, the truth is I really don't give a rats ass about what anyone thinks about my record. The bottom-line is I'm still ahead in this game. I have always laughed at people who think, "If your record is below break-even, you must be a loser." These are the same people who bet blindly every week, don't do their homework and expect a free ride to the bank. These are the same people who have never taken the time to be fully successful at anything in their lives. Takers. That's what I call them. They never have to except responsibility because it's always someone else's fault. They bet with scared money and then piss and moan when they lose. When they win, which is rare, they hoard their winnings, no "Thank you.", no "I had a good week, let me buy you lunch.", no nothing, just "What are your best bets this week?". They're the same people that play the parlay cards every week like lemmings, that think just because a team got blown-out last week they're a piece of shit and have no chance to cover this week, that a second-string QB has no chance to win a game. No insight, little knowledge and commonly known as "Squares", a term I feel is way to gentle, I prefer "Bookie Fodder". Get the message? Save the petty squealing for someone who gives a shit, cause it sure isn't me you cheap fucks!
OK, now that I got that off my chest, let's get to the picks! As usual, nothing's in stone until Sunday morning.
ALL BETS ARE IN.WAGER CODE:
BIG NORMAL BEER MONEY
GAME OFF BOARD: JAC-QB-Garrard-Doubtful; QB-Edwards-Questionable (QB BOUMAN EXPECTED TO START
| | 37½
-9.5 -110 |
PHI-WR-Jackson-Doubtful, QB-Vick-Doubtful TEN-WR-Gage-Questionable, QB-Young-DOUBTFUL
| | 42
-2.5 -120
|
WAS-TE-Cooley-Questionable CHI-LB-Briggs-Probable
| | 40
-3 EVEN |
CLE-QBs-Wallace, Delhomme-Both Doubtful, WR-Cribbs-Questionable NO-RB-Thomas-Questionable
| 42
-13.0 | 43
-13 -110 |
SF-TE-Davis-Probable CAR-WR-Smith-Probable, QB-Moore expected to start
| -3.0
35½ | -3+100
35 |
ARZ-WR-Breaston-Questionable
| 42
-4.5 | 40
-7 -110 |
NE-RB-Taylor-Questionable SD-TE-Gates-PROBABLE, WR-Floyd-Doubtful
| 48½
-2.0 | 47½
-2.5 -110 |
OAK-RB-McFadden-Questionable, QBs-Campbell-Out; Gradkowski-Doubtful; QB-Boller expected to start DEN-WR-Royal-Questionable
| 43
-7.0 EVEN | 42½
-7 -110 |
NBC GB-LB-Matthews-Questionable
| 46
-2.5 | 44
-3 +100 |
GLTA
TIDBITS:
ReplyDeleteThe Bears QB’s have dropped back 202 times this season and 25% of those plays have resulted in either a sack, interception or fumble.
Cutler has been hit 45 times and sacked 27 times; both marks are easily the most in the NFL.
Despite being 0-5, the Panthers having been playing some solid defense ranking 12th overall in the NFL and 5th against the pass. They are also one of the best teams in the league at forcing turnovers with 12 takeaways.
The Falcons are 11-3 against the spread as hosts with Ryan under center, and under Mike Smith, they're 10-2 versus the number after a straight-up loss.
Andy Reid has never fared well before the bye or against AFC opponents. Jeff Fisher, meanwhile, dominates non-conference foes with an incredible 21-6 spread record versus the NFC.
The Chiefs aren't very good against the pass - they've allowed 229 passing yards to every quarterback they've faced this year, including Alex Smith and Seneca Wallace.
The Steelers have been three-point road favorites six times under Mike Tomlin. They're just 2-4 against the spread in those contests.
The Saints, under Sean Payton, are a shocking 2-8 against the spread laying 10 or more.
The Buccaneers aren't good at home (Morris is 1-9 against the spread as a host) and are coming off a very emotional loss to the Saints in what they believed to be their most important game since December 2008.
If you're concerned about taking the 49ers in an East Coast game at 1 p.m., don't worry. Mike Singletary is a perfect 3-0 against the spread in such contests.
The Raiders aren't always properly motivated, but they always get up for divisional games, especially when they're large underdogs. Under Tom Cable, Oakland is 4-2 against the spread as a divisional dog of seven or more points.
The Packers have allowed their previous four opponents to compile at least 220 passing yards. The opportunities will occasionally be there for Favre when he's not getting sacked, but I still question his health. The Vikings mustered just 188 total yards of offense against Dallas, and 17 of their 24 points came off defensive plays or special teams.
After allowing four sacks in Week 2, New York's offensive front has done a great job of keeping Eli Manning's pocket clean; Manning has taken just six sacks in the past four games despite playing fierce defenses like Chicago and Tennessee.
If I do well in the afternoon games, I may up-grade the GB game to a BIG play. As of now, MIN is a 56% spread favorite and 71% exotic play. The forecast is for "SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS 52 TO
ReplyDelete56. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT." And remember, MIN beat GB twice last year.REVENGE!!!