Here are my picks for this week as of today. They could change before game time, but usually don’t.
I’ll try to up-date the spread %’s through out the day. No promises.
Italicized comments are by NICK BOGDANOVICH and will be posted when available.
Here are a few things you might find of interest.
NFL picks that receive more than 80-percent action from public bettors this season are 10-17-1 ATS (37 percent). New England is one of the worst public favorites, with a 1-3 ATS in 2010.
For the season, underdogs of 10 points or more are now a money-making 9-3 ATS (75%). Also note that Baltimore and New Orleans are both 0-2 ATS as double-digit favorites this season.
For the season, teams riding losing streaks of five or more SU are now 6-0 ATS and 4-4 SU. Cincinnati will put this unbeaten record to the test once again in Week 11 when it attempts to snap its six-game SU losing streak
Week 11 - Sunday November 21, 2010
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TEAM | SPREAD% | ML% | TOTAL% | EXOTICS% |
| OAK | 48 | 82 | 68 | 38 |
| PIT | 52 | 18 | 32 | 62 |
| TEAM | OFFENSE | DEFENSE |
| OAKLAND RAIDERS | TOTAL= 12TH √ RUSH= 2ND √ PASS= 25TH | TOTAL= 6TH √ RUSH= 24TH PASS= 2ND √ |
| PITTSBURGH STEELERS | TOTAL= 24TH RUSH= 13TH PASS= 22ND √ | TOTAL= 9TH RUSH= 1ST √ PASS= 26TH |
INJURY REPORT:
11/20: TE Zach Miller, Raiders, practiced Friday and told the media that he'll play Sunday.
11/19: WR Hines Ward, Steelers, had a full practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
TRENDS:
The Raiders are 0-7 ATS since ‘03 the week after their bye.
NOTES:
The Raiders are tied for second in the NFL with 27 sacks
Raiders RB Darren McFadden leads NFL with 108.1 yards per game average
Steelers haven't lost three home games in a season since going 5-3 at Heinz Field in 2006.
The Steelers are having major problems in their secondary. All six of their previous opponents have compiled at least 248 passing yards
NICK sez:
Sharps definitely liked the Raiders at the opener of +8.5. They bet the dog all the way down to +7...and nobody bought back a middle yet. The Wise Guys have been very impressed with what they've seen from the Raiders in recent weeks on both sides of the ball. And, Pittsburgh hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire lately.
KOSMO sez:
This game could be closer than you might think. Laying 7+ is not one of my favorite things to do, especially against a team that can run. PIT defensive line is on life support and if McFadden gets rolling, well, who know what could happen. If OAK wants to win this game they have to take away the PIT running game, force Big Ben to throw it up or fumble. The one caveat I see is the West coast to East coast thingy. Screw it, I’m goin’ with DA RAIDAAAS! (Normal)
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| TEAM | SPREAD% | ML% | TOTAL% | EXOTICS% |
| HOU | 58 | 89 | 52 | 40 |
| NYJ | 42 | 11 | 48 | 60 |
| TEAM | OFFENSE | DEFENSE |
| HOUSTON TEXANS | TOTAL= 6TH √ RUSH= 7TH PASS= 11TH √ | TOTAL= 31ST RUSH= 15TH PASS=32ND |
| NEW YORK JETS | TOTAL= 11TH RUSH= 4TH √ PASS= 20TH | TOTAL= 5TH √ RUSH= 5TH √ PASS= 14TH √ |
INJURY REPORT:
11/20: WR Jerricho Cotchery, Jets, is out for Sunday's game.
11/19: QB Matt Schaub, Texans, was limited in practice Thursday. "There's no doubt in my mind I'll be playing on Sunday," Schaub told the media.
11/19: TE Owen Daniels, Texans is out for Sunday's game.
TRENDS:
Teams that fail to cover in four or more consecutive games are 14-5 ATS as road underdogs of 1-7 points since 2002.
Houston is 28-14 against the spread off two or more straight losses. Kubiak is 11-7 ATS in this situation, but 10-4 ATS as an underdog.
Kubiak is 9-1 against the spread coaching his second-consecutive road game
NOTES:
The Texans have just 14 sacks on the year, and only five in their previous five games.
Houston's run defense has steadily fallen in the rankings.
NICK sez:
Early action on the home favorite from -6.5 to -7 at the outset, with not much happening since then. That may have been position taking too on the thought that squares (the public) may load up on the Jets against the Texas team having to play up North in November. New York hasn't really been a blowout team of late...so I can't assume that was anti-Houston sentiment rather than just position-taking.
KOSMO sez:
I’ve been thinking about this game all week. NYJ, HOU, NYJ, back and forth. So, I decided not to bet this game. Then, last night I had a dream. The Jets were leading late in the 4th quarter by 10 and had just turned the ball over to Houston. Anyhow, Houston scored a quick TD and on the kick-off a gorgeous blonde with huge Ta-tas jumps from the stands, grabs the football and declares Houston the winner and everyone runs off the field to celebrate. I think it was a sign. HOUSTON is the bet. (Normal)
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| TEAM | SPREAD% | ML% | TOTAL% | EXOTICS% |
| BAL | 88 | 88 | 61 | 87 |
| CAR | 12 | 12 | 39 | 13 |
| TEAM | OFFENSE | DEFENSE |
| BALTIMORE RAVENS | TOTAL= 13TH √ RUSH= 11TH √ PASS= 17TH √ | TOTAL= 10TH √ RUSH= 8TH √ PASS= 13TH |
| CAROLINA PANTHERS | TOTAL= 32ND RUSH= 24TH PASS= 32ND | TOTAL= 14TH RUSH= 27TH PASS= 5TH √ |
INJURY REPORT:
11/19: QB Brian St. Pierre Panthers, will start Sunday over the injured Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike.
11/19: RB Jonathan Stewart, Panthers, is out
11/18: RB DeAngelo Williams, Panthers, placed on IR. Out for the year.
TRENDS:
Ravens are 9-4 ATS vs. teams with losing records under John Harbaugh.
Ravens are 5-2 ATS as double-digit favorites under John Harbaugh. (0-2 TY)
NOTES:
Carolina has allowed the third-most sacks in the NFL this year (26).
Ravens have allowed 66 points in fourth quarter, more than all last season (62).
Flacco's seven INTs have all come in road games.
Ravens have failed to score in first quarter in eight of last 11 road games.
Panthers haven't scored a first-quarter touchdown all season.
Panther QB Brian St. Pierre has thrown five passes in eight years.
Panthers have league-low nine TDs and rank last in NFL in points per game (11.6) and yards per game (250.6).
NICK sez:
Baltimore opened at -8, and jumped to -10 right away because of Carolina's recent poor play and quarterback troubles. When it was announced journeyman Brian St. Pierre would get the start, even more money came in on the Ravens (and it takes a lot for sharps to lay double digits on the road). I'm seeing -11 now. Given how poorly Miami played with a #3 quarterback against Chicago this past Monday, we may not see any buyback on St. Pierre no matter where the line ends up.
KOSMO sez:
Those of you that follow know this is a no-brainer. I never pass up double-digit dogs. The record speaks for itself. CAROLINA is my play. (Normal)
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TEAM | SPREAD% | ML% | TOTAL% | EXOTICS% |
| WAS | 52 | 94 | 84 | 44 |
| TEN | 48 | 6 | 16 | 56 |
| TEAM | OFFENSE | DEFENSE |
| WASHINGTON REDSKINS | TOTAL= 21ST √ RUSH= 22ND PASS= 14TH √ | TOTAL= 32ND RUSH= 25TH PASS= 31ST |
| TENNESSEE TITANS | TOTAL= 27TH RUSH= 9TH √ PASS= 31ST | TOTAL= 20TH √ RUSH= 11TH √ PASS= 25TH √ |
INJURY REPORT:
11/19: Clinton Portis RB, Washington Redskins, coach Mike Shanahan confirmed Portis (groin) will return in Week 11.
11/19: Ryan Torain RB, Washington Redskins, (hamstring) has been ruled out for Week 11.
11/18: WR Kenny Britt, Titans, is out for Sunday's game.
TRENDS:
Teams coming off a loss of 17+ points on MNF are 15-32 ATS the following week since 1999.
Titans are 19-5 ATS in non-conference home games.
Jeff Fisher is 22-6 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.
NOTES:
The Titans are tied for second in the NFL with 27 sacks.
McNabb is NFL's worst quarterback on third down with 44.5 rating.
Redskins rank last in third-down conversions at 21.6 percent.
Titans have won 12 straight regular-season games against NFC.
Vince Young is 12-2 as starter against NFC and got first career win against Washington in 2006.
The Titans defense leads AFC and tied for second in NFL with 14 interceptions.
NICK sez:
Same situation here as in New York with an opener of -6.5 for the home favorite moving to -7. That may just be position-taking rather than true support. As bad as Washington looked this past Monday, sharps expected squares to load up against the Skins.
KOSMO sez:
I’ve seen this game before. Last week as a matter of fact. The game was between Team-A which had their asses handed to them the previous week against Team-B that looked unbeatable stat-wise. Even at long odds Team-A had little support. But, lo and behold, Team-A drew strength from their adversity and pledged to all to start anew and went on to victory and a SU win. Now the question is, are the Redskins made from the same fabric. I’m willing to take that chance. REDSKINS for the money. (Normal)
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| TEAM | SPREAD% | ML% | TOTAL% | EXOTICS% |
| DET | 43 | 65 | 51 | 33 |
| DAL | 57 | 35 | 49 | 67 |
| TEAM | OFFENSE | DEFENSE |
| DETROIT LIONS | TOTAL= 19th RUSH= 30th √ PASS= 7th | TOTAL= 23rd RUSH= 23rd √ PASS= 21st |
| DALLAS COWBOYS | TOTAL= 9th √ RUSH= 31st PASS= 4th √ | TOTAL= 21st √ RUSH= 31st PASS= 17th √ |
INJURY REPORT: NONE
TRENDS:
Lions are 4-14 ATS against losing teams the previous 18 instances.
Lions are 0-5 ATS before their Thanksgiving game since 2005.
The Lions are 6-0 ATS since Nov. 23, 2003 as a 7+ dog when their ATS margin decreased over each of their past two games.
NOTES:
All but one of the Lions losses have been decided by eight points or fewer.
Detroit has scored 21 more points than Dallas, and given up 50 less.
Only two interim coaches since 2000 have won their first two games
NICK sez:
Dallas opened at -7, but is down to -6. That's interesting because Dallas looked so good against the Giants. Sharps thought the market overreacted in the Dallas direction after overreacting the other way last week (sharps LOVED the Cowboys on game day). They took the full TD in what they consider to be a closer game.
KOSMO sez:
This game could be Jerry Jones’ production of “NIGHTMARE ON NORTH COLLINS STREET”. Just when you think the nightmare is over, it’s Sunday again and I for one need proof the old Cowboys have slipped away into the sunset. Detroit has hung with better teams all year and do not fear anyone. They’re 7-2 ATS. The LIONS will roar. (Normal)
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| TEAM | SPREAD% | ML% | TOTAL% | EXOTICS% |
| GB | 74 | 45 | 78 | 74 |
| MIN | 26 | 55 | 22 | 26 |
| TEAM | OFFENSE | DEFENSE |
| GREEN BAY PACKERS | TOTAL= 14TH √ RUSH= 20TH PASS= 10TH √ | TOTAL= 13TH RUSH= 20TH PASS= 11TH |
| MINNESOTA VIKINGS | TOTAL= 17TH RUSH= 10TH √ PASS= 18TH | TOTAL= 7TH √ RUSH= 9TH √ PASS= 9TH √ |
INJURY REPORT:
Sidney Rice will make 2010 debut for Vikings on Sunday against GB.TRENDS:
The Vikings are 8-0 ATS, since Sept. 10, 1995, when the line is within 3 of pick at home and they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss the week before.
NOTES:
The Packers have 27 sacks on the year
Rodgers torched the Vikings several weeks ago for 295 yards on just 34 attempts.
NICK sez:
Green Bay opened at -2.5, and got bet to the critical number of three very quickly. Sharps are down on Brett Favre right now, and were pleased to get the Packers at less than a field goal.
KOSMO sez:
I find it somewhat fitting and ironic that Farve began and will end his career in Green Bay. I’ll probably take a lot a crap for saying this but, I won’t miss him. Some new whipper-snapper will take his place in the Monday morning football conversation. The only mention of his name will come in some sort of record book argument over beers at the local watering-hole. C’est la vie!
On to this game, I can’t believe this line. I’d lay 3 points to this Viking team without Rodgers as QB!
GREEN BAY is my play (Big)
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| TEAM | SPREAD% | ML% | TOTAL% | EXOTICS% |
| BUF | 49 | 86 | 37 | 39 |
| CIN | 51 | 14 | 63 | 61 |
| TEAM | OFFENSE | DEFENSE |
| BUFFALO BILLS | TOTAL= 28TH RUSH= 15TH √ PASS= 28TH | TOTAL= 26TH RUSH= 32ND PASS= 7TH √ |
| CINCINNATI BENGALS | TOTAL= 15TH √ RUSH= 26TH PASS= 8TH √ | TOTAL= 15TH √ RUSH= 22ND √ PASS= 12TH |
INJURY REPORT:
11/18: RB C.J. Spiller, Bills, out for Sunday's game with a hamstring.
TRENDS:
Teams that began 0-8 or worse since 2002 are 3-0 against the spread following their first victory.
Bills are 16-9 ATS against losing teams since 2006.
Marvin Lewis is 1-6 ATS as a favorite after losing 2+ consecutive games.
Bengals are 2-11 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.
The Bengals are 0-7 ATS since Sept. 13, 2009 as a home favorite.
NOTES:
The Bengals are allowing 4.5 yards per attempt to opposing backs.
Cincinnati has just nine sacks on the year
The Bills have 13 sacks on the season.
NICK sez:
Cincinnati got bet up from -4.5 to -6. There may have been early concerns about Ryan Fitzpatrick going for Buffalo. He got his hand stepped on last week in the win over Detroit. Not many other reasons to back the Bengals the way they've been playing.
KOSMO sez:
I’ve been riding along with the Bills most of the season and can see no reason to change now. I just hope Joe Public comes in on the Bengals a little harder and drives the line to 6. BILLS to the bank. (Big)
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| TEAM | SPREAD% | ML% | TOTAL% | EXOTICS% |
| CLE | 66 | 99 | 77 | 67 |
| JAC | 34 | 1 | 23 | 33 |
| TEAM | OFFENSE | DEFENSE |
| CLEVELAND BROWNS | TOTAL= 26TH RUSH= 12TH PASS= 29TH | TOTAL= 24TH √ RUSH= 19TH √ PASS= 23RD √ |
| JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS | TOTAL= 20TH √ RUSH= 6TH √ PASS= 27TH √ | TOTAL= 28TH RUSH= 21ST PASS= 29TH |
INJURY REPORT:
11/19: WR Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars, missed practice Wed. and Thurs. He could be a game-time decision.
TRENDS:
Jaguars are 7-19 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
Jaguars are 2-10 ATS as home favorites since 2008.
Browns have won three of last four in series - all decided by six points or less.
Road team has won five of last six meetings.
NOTES:
Jaguars QB David Garrard leads NFL with 137.2 passer rating in fourth quarter.
Garrard has 602 yards passing, six TDs and no interceptions in last two games
NICK sez:
Sharps are buzzing about Colt McCoy of the Browns. They turned that buzz into bucks with strong support on the Browns at the opener of +3. That line has moved down to +1.5...which means Cleveland was also attracting action at +2.5 and +2. This creates a quandary for sportsbooks, because Cleveland would fall into the basic strategy teaser window (moving to +7.5) if there aren't any more changes. And, if sharps loved Cleveland at +3, they'll really love them in teasers at +7.5.
KOSMO sez:
I love the Browns, but not here. The Jags seem to be cranking it up a little lately, and it doesn’t hurt to be lucky too! If the line were 3+ I’d be all over the Browns, but a home favorite of less than 3 is hard to pass up. My money’s on the JAGUARS. (Big)
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| TEAM | SPREAD% | ML% | TOTAL% | EXOTICS% |
| ARI | 50 | 94 | 82 | 30 |
| KC | 50 | 6 | 18 | 70 |
| TEAM | OFFENSE | DEFENSE |
| ARIZONA CARDINALS | TOTAL= 31ST RUSH= 29TH PASS= 30TH | TOTAL= 30TH RUSH= 28TH PASS= 27TH |
| KANSAS CITY CHIEFS | TOTAL= 10TH √ RUSH= 1ST √ PASS= 26TH √ | TOTAL= 19TH √ RUSH= 13TH √ PASS= 22ND √ |
INJURY REPORT: NONE
TRENDS:
Teams that drop two consecutive road games and then are favored at home are 29-49 against the spread since 2002.
Road teams that have dropped at least three games in a row are generally a 60-percent proposition (4-1 ATS this year).
Ken Whisenhunt is 5-1 ATS as an underdog after losing as a favorite.
NOTES:
The Cardinals have 20 sacks on the year, including 12 in their previous four games.
Kansas City's offensive line has yielded 10 sacks to the opposition the past three weeks.
Every opponent of Kansas City's has totaled at least 222 passing yards this season.
After this week, Cardinals will be home for three straight.
Old friends and former colleagues, Ken Whisenhunt and Todd Haley are facing each other for first time as head coaches.
Cardinals do not rank in top 26 in rushing, passing, rush defense, pass defense, turnover ratio or opponent points per game.
Chiefs only team with winning record left on Arizona schedule.
Chiefs will be trying for first 5-0 start at home since going 8-0 in '03.
NICK sez:
Arizona has been awful on the road, so an opener of Kansas City -7.5 actually went up rather than toward the critical number of seven. I'm seeing KC -8.5 as I write this. That would stick the Chiefs in the teaser window (moving down to -1.5), so you may see a self-defense move to -9 from some sportsbooks over the weekend. They don't want the whole world putting Kansas City in teasers at less than a field goal at home over a horrible road team.
KOSMO sez:
This was a tuff game for me to pick, until I noticed something. KC has only covered one game as a favorite. They’ve been favored in their last four games and only covered against JAC at home. Stat-wise this should be a cake-walk for them. But, something smells. I can’t put a finger on it exactly but, tell me if this makes any sense. ARI was a +10 to SD and KC was a +4 to SD. My thinking says this line should be KC-6. There’s a possibility this line could end up at-9. I’m rollin’ the dice here, but ARI is my play. (Normal)
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TEAM | SPREAD% | ML% | TOTAL% | EXOTICS% |
| SEA | 53 | 64 | 86 | 28 |
| NO | 47 | 36 | 14 | 72 |
| TEAM | OFFENSE | DEFENSE |
| SEATTLE SEAHAWKS | TOTAL= 30TH RUSH= 28TH PASS= 23RD | TOTAL= 27TH RUSH= 14TH √ PASS= 28TH |
| NEW ORLEANS SAINTS | TOTAL= 7TH √ RUSH= 25TH √ PASS= 5TH √ | TOTAL= 3RD √ RUSH= 17TH PASS= 1ST √ |
INJURY REPORT:
11/19: RB Reggie Bush, Saints, was limited in practice again Thursday, but is expected to play.
11/20: RB Pierre Thomas, Saints, is out
11/19: TE Jeremy Shockey, Saints, is out
TRENDS:
Underdogs of +10.5 or more are 34-11 against the spread coming off a road upset.
Under Sean Payton, the Saints are 2-9 against the spread laying double digits.
Saints are 12-11 ATS at home since 2008.
NOTES:
The Seahawks are playing in their second-consecutive road game.
The Seahawks have 26 sacks on the year.
Seattle has been outscored 122-79 on the road this season.
The Saints defense is allowing a league low 166.3 yards passing per game.
NICK sez:
Early support on the team side to underdog Seattle, as an opener of +12.5 is down to +11.5. You just never know with the Seahawks. They've been a feast or famine team for many weeks now. That means line moves of a point matter less in their games. So few are landing near the number.
KOSMO sez:
WOOF! WOOF! (Normal)
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| TEAM | SPREAD% | ML% | TOTAL% | EXOTICS% |
| ATL | 86 | 80 | 82 | 85 |
| STL | 14 | 20 | 18 | 15 |
| TEAM | OFFENSE | DEFENSE |
| ATLANTA FALCONS | TOTAL= 8th √ RUSH= 8th √ PASS= 12th √ | TOTAL= 17th RUSH= 7th PASS= 23rd |
| ST. LOUIS RAMS | TOTAL= 25th RUSH= 18th PASS= 24th | TOTAL= 12th √ RUSH= 6th √ PASS= 18th √ |
INJURY REPORT: NONE
TRENDS:
The Rams are 0-7 ATS since Oct. 27, 1991 as a dog after a loss on the road in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter.
NOTES:
Atlanta’s D-front hasn't allowed more than four yards per carry to any opponent since Week 2.
Falcons 6-0 in domed stadiums this year, five of them at home, and are 20-6 in domes last three seasons, second-best in NFL.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan has just five INTs - tied for fewest in NFC.
Rookie QB Sam Bradford has thrown 138 passes without an interception in the last four games.
Rams have won four in row at home.
Rams are allowing just 12.6 points at home, best in NFL.
Rams had five sacks last week and a total of 28, tied for first in NFL.
NICK sez:
Not much interest here. Atlanta is -3, and most sharps think that's a fair line. The Falcons best games have been at home this year, which is why you're not seeing support for a team that's getting media respect. I know some sharps who are hoping the public comes in on Atlanta on game day so they can take the Rams at +3.5 or better.
KOSMO sez:
This is my UPSET SPECIAL! I like the Rams. There’s no place like home to these guys and the Falcons ain’t turkey, but a tired bird is a tired bird. ATL has had two high pressure games in a row and face GB next week. I expect a let-down in this one. (Big)
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| TEAM | SPREAD% | ML% | TOTAL% | EXOTICS% |
| TB | 68 | 98 | 38 | 74 |
| SF | 32 | 2 | 62 | 26 |
| TEAM | OFFENSE | DEFENSE |
| TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS | TOTAL= 22ND √ RUSH= 14TH √ PASS= 19TH | TOTAL= 22ND RUSH= 31ST PASS= 8TH √ |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49’ERS | TOTAL= 23RD RUSH= 21ST PASS= 16TH √ | TOTAL= 16TH √ RUSH= 10TH √ PASS= 20TH |
INJURY REPORT:
49ers LT Joe Staley sidelined 4 to 6 weeks with broken left leg sustained in win over St. Louis.
TRENDS:
Tampa Bay is 5-26 in its franchise history on the West Coast.
Buccaneers are 15-22 ATS on the road after a win since 2002.
The Niners are 11-1 SU vs. Tampa Bay at Candlestick Park.
NOTES:
The Buccaneers have seven sacks on the year and only two if you exclude the Carolina games.
Bucs QB Josh Freeman has rallied Tampa Bay to fourth-quarter comebacks in four of its six victories.
Troy Smith is 2-0 after signing in September as No. 3 quarterback. He hasn't thrown interception in his two outings, but has fumbled once in each game.
Opposing QBs have thrown for only 10 TDs in San Francisco's last 16 home games - fewest in NFL during that span, which dates to Nov. 16, 2008.
NICK sez:
Tampa Bay has earned the respect of sharps in recent weeks, and inspired a drop from +4 to +3 in this one. Travelling cross country is a negative. But, San Francisco had to go overtime last week, which hurts the hosts chances of playing above norms. I have to say...the turnaround in sentiment this year about Tampa Bay has to be one of the biggest I've seen in years from sharps. They thought this coach and team were going to be awful coming into the season.
KOSMO sez:
This game means a lot to both teams. With a win SF is still in the hunt and they seem to have some momentum building. For TB a win ties them with ATL (I predicted an ATL loss this week). I’m going to take TB in a squeaker (Normal).
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| TEAM | SPREAD% | ML% | TOTAL% | EXOTICS% |
| IND | 42 | 73 | 50 | 55 |
| NE | 58 | 27 | 50 | 45 |
| TEAM | OFFENSE | DEFENSE |
| INDIANAPOLIS COLTS | TOTAL=4TH √ RUSH=27TH PASS=3RD √ | TOTAL=18TH √ RUSH=29TH PASS=10TH √ |
| NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS | TOTAL=18TH RUSH=17TH √ PASS=15TH | TOTAL=29TH RUSH=18TH √ PASS=30TH |
INJURY REPORT:
11/20: RB Joseph Addai Colts, is out
11/19: WR Austin Collie, Colts, practiced fully on Friday and is expected to play.
TRENDS:
Colts are 11-3 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 2007.
Peyton Manning is 13-3 ATS as an underdog since 2003.
Tom Brady is 115-38 as a starter (90-60 ATS).
NOTES:
Brady has won 25 consecutive home games as starter, tying him with Brett Favre for record.
NICK sez:
New England has been bet up to -4 from an opener of -3. There are sharps who hate trying to fade Peyton Manning as un underdog. But...the Colts have looked so shaky with all of their injuries that they didn't step in yet to counteract the Tom Brady money. New England looked great vs. Pittsburgh last Monday Night. This line move is basically from people impressed with the Patriots betting...and people who prefer Manning not betting because of the injury situation.
KOSMO sez:
This might be a game that’s more fun to watch than bet. But, that’ll never happen with me. I love taking Manning as a dog. It’s probably as close as I’ll ever get to stealing. (Normal)
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| TEAM | SPREAD% | ML% | TOTAL% | EXOTICS% |
| NYG | 28 | 52 | 66 | 40 |
| PHI | 72 | 48 | 34 | 60 |
| TEAM | OFFENSE | DEFENSE |
| NEW YORK GIANTS | TOTAL= 2ND √ RUSH= 5TH PASS= 6TH √ | TOTAL= 1ST √ RUSH= 3RD √ PASS= 4TH √ |
| PHILADELPHIA EAGLES | TOTAL= 3RD RUSH= 3RD √ PASS= 9TH | TOTAL= 11TH RUSH= 12TH PASS= 16TH |
INJURY REPORT:
11/18: WR Steve Smith, Giants, is out Sunday.
TRENDS:
Teams coming off a win of 17+ points on MNF are 35-21 ATS the following week.
Since Dec. 04, 2005, the Giants are 8-0 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick after a game in which they had more than 34 minutes of possession time.
NOTES:
Eagles have scored a touchdown on their opening possession five times, going 5-0 SU in those games.
Giants offense tied for first with San Diego with 23.1 first downs per game, and defense is No. 1 by allowing 13.9 first downs a game.
Eagles QB Michael Vick has attempted 182 consecutive passes without throwing an interception, the longest streak of his career.
NICK sez:
Limited action yet...though the public may step in Sunday because the Eagles looked great last Monday Night. Squares love taking hot teams at home at a field goal...so we may see some movement soon. The fact that sharps haven't acted yet tells us they prefer the Giants, and are waiting to see if they can get something better.
KOSMO sez:
Quick Question: An embarrassed team and an over-achieving team play each other. Who tries harder to win? OK, that’s kind of subjective, but you get my drift. Rarely do I see a team that performs as good as the Eagles did last week repeat the same effort the following week. Make note, I didn’t say it couldn’t happen. Look at what happen to the Giants. In week 9 they beat the Seahawks 41-7 and then in week10 took the lowly Cowboys for granted and got their asses whooped. Again, I’m not saying that same thing will happen to the Eagles. What I am saying is let-downs happen to all teams. Give me the GIANTS. (Big)
GLTA
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