Week 10 - Sunday November 14, 2010
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NICK sez: Early support for the Bengals as an opener of +8 is down to +7. Sharps generally fade the Colts because they're a public team...though they've regretted that so far at home this season. With the new injuries that keep hitting Indy on a weekly basis, sharps decided eight was just too high.
KOSMO sez: I’m not impressed with any team that scores TDs in garbage time, even if it’s against the Steelers. Carson Palmer may have looked better to some, but I’m still not impressed. Likewise, Peyton hasn’t been the old dominating Peyton either. In fairness, IND has had numerous injuries to deal with. CIN has T.O. and Ocho to deal with. This line scares me. It’s not that I think CIN can win, it’s more I don’t trust Peyton. No killer mode. I can easily see a repeat of the PIT game. Gimme IND at -6.5 or CIN at +7.5. With a gun to my head, I’ll take IND -7 for a beer.
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NICK sez: Clear interest in Jacksonville, as we've flopped favorites here from Houston -1 to Jacksonville -1.5. That means the Jaguars were a sharp bet at +1 and pick-em, with some support holding even at -1. The Houston defense has really faded badly lately...and the Jaguars are rested after a bye week.
KOSMO sez: Jacksonville has wins over DEN, IND, BUF & DAL. Their combined record is 8-24. Houston has wins over IND, WAS, OAK & KC. Their combined record is 19-14. Houston has 193PF/226PA. Jacksonville has 165PF/226PA. The state of Texas can’t have two losers can they?
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NICK sez: Big move here, as Tennessee opened +2 but is now -2. That's not just a favorite flipping, that's one of the biggest moves you can have without crossing a critical number. Let's note though that support did stop before it reached Titans by 3. The market didn't take the switch to Chad Pennington at Miami quarterback as a good sign for the Dolphins. Plus, Tennessee had a bye last week while Miami was still grinding through a very tough schedule.
KOSMO sez: Chad Pennington will start at QB for MIA. Big deal, although it probably couldn’t hurt. We already know Henne can’t win at home. All the same, I’ll go with TEN. The Dolphins can get their first home win next week against the Bears.
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NICK sez: Minnesota's -1 everywhere as we go to press. Looks like sharps are more interested in rooting for both QB's to either score, or set up cheap points for the other side...rather than choosing somebody to win a coin flip game.
KOSMO sez: How do I say this? I think both these teams are over rated. CHI is 29th in the league in total offense and MIN is 11th. CHI is 8th in total defense and MIN is 5th. OK, now look at their records! Makes no sense to me. I hate Cutler, Martz, Farve and Childress! I’m only going to watch this game to see if my prediction comes true. If Jackson starts I’ll take MIN. If Farve starts I’ll take the Bears as a beer bet. If the beer bet wins, I’ll pour it out!
(Note to PARKER: $5 says whomever you bet on in this game is a loser.)
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NICK sez: Buffalo's offense has been more productive since the move to Fitzpatrick. The line of Buffalo -3 will probably stay there because squares (the public) won't touch this game, and sharps haven't expressed early sentiment at the key number. That could mean they're waiting to see if the dog offers more value on game day. Some old school sharps will go against any bad team that's a favorite. Buffalo is winless, yet laying points here.
KOSMO sez: Ugh! Loser vs. loser. I’m not even sure if Detroit has a QB for this game. Hill has a forearm injury, but will probably start. I’m sticking with the Buffs, the streak ends here.
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NICK sez: Sharps took the hook early at +3.5 so we're now seeing Cleveland +3 everywhere. The Browns have really impressed recently with their defense and running game. New York was lucky to beat Detroit last week, and is playing a better team here. Sharps were happy to take that extra half point just in case the game goes down to the wire.
KOSMO sez: I just hate it when the linemakers catch up. I could almost count on getting a fat line in a Cleveland game. Ah, but not anymore. CLE is a good team, maybe not good enough to go 8-8 this year, but good none the less. The CLE offensive line is so good that even a no-name like Peyton Hillis (quick, which college did he come from?) is the talk of the fantasy leagues. The Browns defensive line is no slouch either. They’ve limited their previous three opponents to fewer than four yards per carry. That includes the Steelers. McCoy vs. Sanchez, both young guns will get a chance to air it out. The passing defense for both teams is questionable at best. Here’s how Walter Cherepinsky at WalterFootball.com put it, “McCoy has performed admirably against Dick LeBeau, Gregg Williams and Bill Belichick - three of the NFL's top defensive play-callers. Why can't he have success against Rex Ryan when another young quarterback, Matthew Stafford, played really well last week?” I’m gonna go with the Brownies. Love them home dogs. (Answer: Arkansas)
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NICK sez: A lot of support for Carolina at +7.5 on the opener. We're now seeing +6.5 everywhere...which means that sharps also like the divisional road dog at +7 too. Carolina has looked pretty ugly lately. But, they do have a solid defense...and sharps like defensive dogs in divisional action.
KOSMO sez: All the trends say CAR, but all system plays say TB. My worry in this game is that the line moves to 7+. If it does the system plays don’t apply. I like TB at 7 or less.
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NICK sez: Kansas City opened at -2.5, but has been bet down to -1. That may be related to Denver coming in off a bye while KC had to go overtime last week vs. Oakland, and a few times in recent weeks because the same thing happened with Buffalo.
KOSMO sez: And so we begin what will probably be a very long and boring afternoon. This is the second game today where we have one team that can’t win on the road facing a team that can’t win at home or on the road. I’ll not waste a lot of time on this game because I don’t feel either team has a real advantage. The line opened at DEN +2.5 but quickly moved to DEN +1, which indicates to me Joe Public will probably end up taking the KC. KC is the bet, but I’m going to make it a beer bet.
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NICK sez: San Francisco got early support at -5.5, which surprised some people. We're seeing -6 everywhere right now. I know some dog lovers are waiting to see if they can get a better line before kickoff on the divisional rivalry theory. There are some sharps who expect a strong second half from the 49ers based on discussions I've been having. I'll have to see it before I believe it myself.
KOSMO sez: Please explain to me how the 49ers can be a 6 point favorite? Troy Smith? Here’s some numbers to consider; RAMS- 140PF/141PA, ‘9ers- 137PF/178PA. The Rams are rated 21st against the run and 5th against the pass. The ‘9ers are 3rd against the run and 23rd against the pass. Put my check mark next to the Rams in the beer money column.
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NICK sez: Very little betting interest here thus far. Sharps are waiting for more word on the Seattle quarterback situation before getting involved. Interestingly, each of these teams has received sharp backing in recent weeks...so we may see a busy game day even if the build-up is quiet.
KOSMO sez: If you consider the Rams/49’er game pathetic, this one could easily be deemed the “Snore Bowl”. Think about it, if the Lambs and the Seahags both lose, no one will have a winning record in the division! It was brought to my attention that this is a revenge game. Great! Nothing like watching a battle royal between two tooth-less sloths. I can hardly wait! I’ll take the SEAHAGS, but it’s another beer bet for me. At this rate I doubt I’ll be sober enough to even watch the late game.
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NICK sez: Sharps are looking to take Dallas at +14, but are sitting back with patience at +13.5
KOSMO sez: What can you say about the ‘Boys that hasn’t been said yet? And, if you think the Cowboys have it bad, how’d you like to be a scalper at the stadium entrance with a handful of tickets?
Seriously, those that know me know I don’t pass up on a DD spread, but I can’t make myself bet anything more than beer money on DAL. The good news is, win or lose it’s still in the toilet.
(Note to KEVIN: When DO they win again? DET? ARI? Next year? Scary.)
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NICK sez: Pittsburgh moved from -4 to -5, as sharps were not impressed at all last week with the Patriots in Cleveland. They didn't impress vs. Minnesota either. So, this is a team that hasn't been up to standards since they dumped Randy Moss. Pittsburgh's finally at home after a three-game road trip. Sharps expect a big increase in productivity with the home cooking.
KOSMO sez: As much as I like Cleveland last week against NE, this week I like NE 10X as much over PIT. There are stories flying around about the Pit offensive line being banged-up. (Starks & Kemoeatu possibly out). Bottom-line here is, I can’t pass up Brady and points!
Week 10 - Monday November 15, 2010
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NICK sez: Not much interest yet here. Maybe it will get busy on game day with a Monday Night Home Underdog on the card. Some old school sharps take those sight unseen (particularly in divisional rivalry games). Many of the younger guys try to find ways to back a cheap favorite figuring the market is overreacting to an out-of-date strategy.
KOSMO sez: REVENGE! McNabb beat these guys earlier this year in Philly and I got a feeling the Eagles still have a bad taste in their mouths. Think about this for a minute, the Eagles are 7th against the run and have 23 sacks this season. That doesn’t fair well for the home team, but, then again, McNabb has been sacked 22 times already this year, so he should be use to it. On the other side of the coin, can WAS stop both McCoy and Vick from running with a 28th rated rush defense? Also, just remember, DeAngelo Hall can’t cover both sides of the field at once.
(Note to REDSKIN BILL: Get ready to put Carlos Rodgers back on your “Game Goat” list.
SPREAD PERCENTAGES FOR FRIDAY
ReplyDeleteColts = 66%
Texans = 86%
Titans = 80%
Vikings = 75%
Lions = 62%
Jets = 72%
Bucs = 84%
Chiefs = 78%
Rams = 74%
Cards = 60%
Giants = 52%
Pats = 69%
Eagles = 80%