PICKS-1/2 NFL

Two shitty weeks in a row. The wheels have fallen off the wagon. Follow at your own risk!

There's a lot a things to consider before making any wagers this week. Who's the QB, is he gonna play the whole game or just the first half, does winning the game have any real effect with the play-offs, do the outcomes of the early games matter? Yeah, my head is spinning too! To make things even less clear, this is the first year the NFL has scheduled all division games in week 17! (Historical week 17 trends & stats are pretty much useless).
NICK sez:
www.vegassportsmasters.com/?q=article/nick-what-sharps-think-about-final-week-nfl

Same rules as usual. I'll post any changes by 9:00am.
WAGER CODE: BIG NORMAL BEER MONEY

Week 17 - Sunday January 2, 2011

OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY 1:00 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 301 OAK 4 5 21 43.5 (7-8) (2-5 A) 302 KAN 20 -3.5 (10-5) (7-0 H) Kansas City could rest some of its top defenders. · History: Road Team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings. · Raiders are 1-6 ATS in Week 17 since 2003. · Chiefs are 11-19 ATS at home since 2007 (5-2 in 2010). · Chiefs are 4-9 ATS as favorites since 2007.

MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND 1:00 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 303 MIA 2 4 21 43.5 (7-8) (6-1 A) 304 NEW 5 20 -4.5 (13-2) (7-0 H) · History: Patriots have won 5 of the last 7 meetings. · Dolphins are 12-6 ATS vs. AFC East since 2008. · Tony Sparano is 17-6 ATS on the road. · Patriots are 32-19 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001. · Patriots are 19-11 ATS in December home games since 2000. · Patriots are 7-2 ATS in Week 17 since 2001. · Tom Brady is 121-38 as a starter (94-62 ATS).

TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS 4:15 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 305 TEN 4 18 21 48 (6-9) (3-4 A) 306 IND -9.5 (9-6) (5-2 H) Underdogs tend to cover in their second-consecutive road game. Jeff Fisher is 6-3 against the spread in this dynamic dating back to 2002. · History: Colts have won 12 of the last 15 meetings (Titans 6-3 ATS since 2006). · Titans are 23-15 ATS as underdogs in the post-Steve McNair era. · Colts are 4-11 ATS in Weeks 16 and 17 since 2003.

JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON 4:15 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 307 JAC 23 -3 (8-7) (3-4 A) 308 HOU 1 21 46 (5-10) (3-4 H) Jaguars will go with Trent Edwards as the starter, with Todd Bouman backing him up Teams laying points on the road after two or more consecutive losses usually don't cover. The Texans want revenge for that ridiculous Hail Mary victory back in Week 10. Also, they haven't covered the spread in four games; home underdogs in that situation are 18-6 against the spread since 2002. · History: Jaguars have won the last 3 meetings. · Jack Del Rio is 1-6 ATS in Week 17 games. · Texans are 16-29 ATS after a win (10-13 since 2007). · Texans are 30-16 ATS after two or more consecutive losses. · Texans are 9-3 ATS as home underdogs since October 2006.

PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND 1:00 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 309 PIT 20 -5.5 (11-4) (6-1 A) 310 CLE 4 5 21 37.5 (5-10) (3-4 H) Cleveland has surrendered at least 97 rushing yards to every team it has faced since Week 10. Pittsburgh usually doesn't function well as a road favorite (5-13 ATS under Mike Tomlin). · History: Steelers have won 19 of the last 21 meetings. · Steelers are 5-13 ATS as road favorites under Mike Tomlin. · Ben Roethlisberger is 23-13 ATS vs. the AFC North.

CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE 1:00 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 311 CIN 21 43 (4-11) (1-6 A) 312 BAL 7 -9.5 (11-4) (6-1 H) · History: Bengals have won 6 of the last 8 meetings. · Bengals are 11-6 ATS as underdogs since 2009. · Ravens are 11-4 ATS vs. teams with losing records under John Harbaugh. · Ravens are 6-2 ATS as double-digit favorites under John Harbaugh.

MINNESOTA @ DETROIT 1:00 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 313 MIN 3 27 42.5 (6-9) (2-5 A) 314 DET -3.5 (5-10) (3-4 H) · History: Vikings have won 21 of the last 22 meetings. · Vikings are 4-24 ATS in their road finale since 1980. · Lions are 3-7 ATS as favorites since 2006. · Lions are 4-15 ATS against losing teams the previous 19 instances.

NEW YORK @ WASHINGTON 4:15 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 315 NYG 4 17 -4 (9-6) (4-3 A) 316 WAS 21 44.5 (6-9) (2-5 H) The Redskins have generated 26 turnovers this season. The Redskins have a horrific run defense (31st in YPC) and a slightly better pass defense (28th in YPA). The Giants are tied for first in sacks (44), while Washington has surrendered the fourth-most sacks in the league this season (43). · History: Giants have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.

CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY 4:15 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 317 CHI 3 5 25 41.5 (11-4) (6-1 A) 318 GNB 20 -9.5 (9-6) (6-1 H) · History: Home Team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings. · Bears are 8-27 ATS in December road games the previous 35 instances. · Bears are 2-16 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games. · Jay Cutler is 23-42 ATS. · Jay Cutler is 10-22 ATS as a favorite. · Packers are 16-10 ATS in December home games since 2000.

DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA 4:15 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 319 DAL 1 4 21 46 (5-10) (3-4 A) 320 PHI 5 -6.5 (10-5) (4-3 H) Andy Reid has rested all of his starters in the past, and he told the media he plans on doing the same thing this year. Eagles will start QB Kevin Kolb QB Stephen McGee looks likely to start in Week 17 for the Dallas Cowboys. · History: Cowboys have won 3 of the last 4 meetings. · Eagles are 69-46 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001. · Eagles are 31-23 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.

BUFFALO @ NEW YORK 1:00 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 321 BUF 1 17 19 21 39.5 (4-11) (2-5 A) 322 NYJ -1.5 (10-5) (4-3 H) The Jets have surrendered at least 92 rushing yards to their previous four opponents. · History: Jets have won 4 of the last 5 meetings. · Bills are 13-5 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

CAROLINA @ ATLANTA 1:00 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 323 CAR 1 21 41 (2-13) (0-7 A) 324 ATL 2 -14 (12-3) (6-1 H) Double-digit favorites off a loss are just 35-62 against the spread since 2002. Teams that have lost on Thursday are 6-2 against the spread. · History: Home Team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings. · John Fox is 8-4 ATS in same-season divisional revenge games (0-2 ATS this year). · John Fox is 6-1 ATS in Week 17 games. · Matt Ryan is 14-5 ATS at home. · Mike Smith is 11-2 ATS after a loss.

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS 1:00 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 325 TAM 5 27 46.5 (9-6) (5-2 A) 326 NOR -7.5 (11-4) (5-2 H) Tampa hasn't lost a game by more than seven points in more than two months. If the Falcons are up big, the Saints could pull their starters. · History: Saints have won 2 of the last 3 meetings. · Saints are 31-47 ATS at home since 2001 (14-11 since 2008). · Saints are 23-36 ATS as a home favorite since 2001. · Saints are 10-22 ATS in December home games since 2000.

ST. LOUIS @ SEATTLE 8:20 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 327 STL -3 (7-8) (2-5 A) 328 SEA 4 41.5 (6-9) (4-3 H) · History: Seahawks have won 10 of the last 11 meetings. · Rams are 28-42 ATS in road games since 2001 (9-6 since 2009). · Rams are 19-27 ATS on grass since 2001. · Seahawks are 13-4 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO 4:15 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 329 ARI 39 (5-10) (1-6 A) 330 SFO 4 -6 (5-10) (4-3 H) Alex Smith will start for the ‘9ers San Francisco's previous opponents have all thrown for at least 273 yards Since Week 11, the Cardinals have surrendered a 6.02 YPA to opposing quarterbacks - which would be good for first in the NFL (Baltimore is at 6.27). Since 1996, teams that have fired their head coaches in the middle of the season during a non-bye week are 4-12 against the spread. The Cardinals will be out for revenge after getting embarrassed in the Monday night game earlier. History: 49ers have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.

SAN DIEGO @ DENVER 4:15 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 331 SDG 2 -3.5 (8-7) (2-5 A) 332 DEN 21 47 (4-11) (3-4 H) · History: Chargers have won 7 of the last 9 meetings. · Philip Rivers is 18-11 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30. · Norv Turner is 9-3 ATS as a favorite after a loss as a favorite.

GLTA