Week 14 - Sunday December 12, 2010
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NICK sez: Sharps are generally leery of bad body clock games.
West to East: Cable(OAK) 3-4 ATS (0-1 TY) Jack Del Rio is 3-0 as chalk TY after 0-5 mark in role a year ago.
Jags are 4-2 vs. line as hosts after dropping 16 of 24 spread decisions at home the previous three seasons.
Cable (Oakland) is 0-3 after a division game
Jaguars are 8-1 ATS coming off a 2-game road trip the previous 9 instances.
Jaguars are 9-3 ATS before playing the arch rival Colts since 2004.
Jaguars are 9-19 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
Jaguars are 3-10 ATS as home favorites since 2008.
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NICK sez: Sharps believe Cincinnati will bring an effort against a hated divisional rival.
Road Team has won 9 of the last 12 meetings.
Bengals are 16-5 ATS against the Steelers if they lost to them previously the same season in the last 21 instances.
Cincy continues to skid. They’re now 0-9 SU and 2-7 vs. line last 9 TY as Marvin Lewis' days grow shorter.
Bengals are 3-7 vs. line last 10 away and have dropped 5 of last 7 spread decisions vs. Steelers.
Steelers are 4-4 as chalk TY and just 8-14 in role since '09.
The Bengals have lost five consecutive games at home, which marks the first time in eight years that has happened.
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NICK sez: Not much interest on the team side from the sharps.
If Chan Gailey is favored, he has an 0-2 chalk mark TY.
Browns have won and covered last three years in series
Gailey (Buffalo) is 0-4 vs non-division opponent.
Mangini (Cleveland) is 5-0 as a road dog.
The Browns have surrendered at least 97 rushing yards to their previous four opponents.
The Bills are 27th against the rush. They've surrendered 376 rushing yards the past two weeks.
Bills are 16-10 ATS at home after Oct. 1 when favored by fewer than 6 points since 2002.
Bills are 17-10 ATS against losing teams since 2006.
The Bills have allowed an opponent to rush for at least 200 yards in a game six times this season.
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NICK sez: Several sharps like backing Eli Manning at good prices indoors
This is a Breather Alert for the Giants; they have the Eagles and Packers after this game.
The last time Giants played at the Metrodome, it was '09 reg.-season finale and they were blasted 44-7.
Revenge is on the plate here.
Vikes are only 2-5 vs. line last 7 TY but have won and covered both since Leslie Frazier was promoted to HC spot.
Coughlin (N.Y. Giants) is 3-13 off a win of 7 points or more.
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NICK sez: It's interesting that the team side line of Green Bay by 6.5 didn't move up to seven. If sharps liked Green Bay, that would have happened instantly. The fact that it DIDN'T happen tells you sharps prefer the dog.
Major Breather Alert for the Packers; this is their last "easy game;" after this, they have the Patriots, Giants and Bears.
Lions might be running on empty, no covers two of last three TY.
Green Bay has won and covered last four trips to Ford Field.
Packers have won the last 10 meetings.
Packers are 25-13 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy.
Jim Schwartz is 1-5 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.
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NICK sez: This is an invisible spot on the Sunday schedule in terms of betting interest.
Panthers are just 1-5 vs. line at home TY and 3-9 vs. spread overall.
Falcons have won and covered their last 4 TY.
Home Team has won the last 4 meetings.
John Fox is 5-2 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.
Panthers quarterbacks have thrown five passes that have been intercepted and returned for touchdowns this season — two by Jimmy Clausen , two by Brian St. Pierre and one by Matt Moore .
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NICK sez: Sharps have overcome their early skepticism about TB’s coach and quarterback. It says a lot that they're willing to take them on the road in a letdown spot.
Bucs are 6-0 vs. spread away TY.
Skins are 1-4 SU and vs. line last 5 in 2010.
Bucs could be road chalk for first time in 2010, and first time anywhere since 2008 at Lions.
The Redskins are now dead last against the run in terms of YPC. They're the only team surrendering more than 5 YPC
Tampa is 30th against the rush, but has limited its previous three opponents to just 3.5 YPC.
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NICK sez: If sharps had liked New Orleans they would have jumped in at less than ten. They didn't.
Breather Alert: The Saints have the Ravens, Falcons and Buccaneers after this "easy game."
The Rams have covered 5 of 6 on road TY and 9 of last 11 overall vs. number.
Saints are also stirring a bit but only 2-3-1 vs. line as host TY.
New Orleans also just 8-16-1 vs. line last 25 on board since mid '09.
Teams that have won five or more consecutive games tend not to cover at home, going 26-44 against the spread in this dynamic since 2002. The Saints have been in this position four times under Sean Payton, and are just 1-3 ATS.
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NICK sez: Sharps just do not believe in Seattle, particularly on the road. Who would have thought a top sharp opinion would have been laying more than a field goal with the 49ers?
Alex Smith is again the 49ers starting QB.
49ers are mathematically out if they lose Sunday to Seattle
Seahawks have won 11 of the last 15 meetings.
This is a revenge game for Niners after an ugly 31-6 opening-day loss.
Pete Carroll is only 2-4 vs. line on road TY
Mike Singletary is 8-4 ATS against divisional opponents.
Seahawks 3-12 vs. number last 15 as visitor. Singletary only 2-6 as chalk TY, however.
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NICK sez: New England's defense looked pretty good this past week...which impressed a few sharps.
For the first time since being traded to the Bears, Jay Cutler has gone back-to-back games w/o an INT.
Teams coming off a win of 17+ points on MNF are 37-22 ATS the following week.
Bears are 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 vs. line since bye week.
Lovie is 5-1 vs. line as a dog TY after 2-7 mark in role LY.
Belichick is only 2-2 as road chalk TY after 1-3 mark in role LY.
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NICK sez: Sharps want the defensive dog in a divisional revenge game.
Teams coming off a loss of 17+ points on MNF are 16-34 ATS the following week since 1999.
Xtra Tidbit: Teams coming off blowout losses on Monday night that are favored the following week
are a dreadful 4-15 against the spread since 2002.
Dolphins continue startling road form, now 5-1 SU and vs. line away TY.
Sparano is 16-5 vs. spread last 21 as visitor since early '08.
Dolphins have covered last two as series visitor, but this is first trip to New Meadowlands.
Dolphins are 1-10 ATS after a loss of 6 or fewer points since 2007.
Rex Ryan is only 3-3 vs. line as host TY and 7-7 since '09.
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NICK sez: There will be very little betting interest in this game
John Skelton will be the Cardinals starting quarterback
Broncos announced RB coach Eric Studesville as interim head coach.
Denver is 2-6 vs. line last 8 TY,
Cards are 1-6 last 7 and 2-9 last 11 on board.
NFL teams are 8-2-1 ATS since 2001 in their third straight home game with the line at 4 or less points.
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NICK sez: Tough to take less than a TD with a backup QB in a game that is no longer a 'must win' from the Kansas City perspective.
Chiefs announce that QB Matt Cassel underwent an appendectomy Wed.
Backup QB Brodie Croyle has started nine games for the Chiefs since 2006 and lost every one.
Revenge! Norv is 4-1 SU and vs. line in rare in-season revenge since '07 (but lost in role vs. OAK last week).
Home Team has won 18 of the last 25 meetings (Chargers have won 5 of the last 6).
Chiefs are 18-10 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.
Philip Rivers is 16-10 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30.
Norv Turner is 8-3 ATS as a favorite after a loss as a favorite.
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NICK sez: The Eagles got support at -3 on the opener, and are now -3.5. I've told you before that it takes a lot of money to move off a critical number...then STAY off. So, this is a pretty strong opinion for sharps.
Cowboys have won the last 3 meetings.
Cowboys 4-0 vs. line since Jason Garrett took over for Wade Phillips.
Cowboys have covered last 2 at home after dropping previous 4 vs. number as host TY.
Revenge for Andy Reid after Dallas dominated Birds LY, winning and covering three times, including a pair of humbling wins at Arlington (one in the wild card round).
Birds are only 5-6 vs. line TY and 3-3 away.
Week 14 - Monday December 13, 2010
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NICK sez: Sharps will probably fade any public action if the public drives the line one way or the other.
Ravens are only 4-6-1 vs. spread in the last 11 on the road, and 2-3 last 5 as road chalk.
Texans are 0-3 SU and 1-2 vs. line all-time vs. Ravens.
Kubiak 5-2 last 7 as home dog since '07.
Harbaugh (Baltimore) is 5-1 vs non-division opponent.
Giants/Vikes will be a regional game on Monday night in the two home markets. Everyone else gets Texans/Ravens on Monday Night Football.
ReplyDeleteFor the thousands (and I mean that) wanting to know if DirecTV will show NY-Min Mon, NFL doesn't know yet.