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Wednesday, September 21, 2011

NFL Tech Trends - Week 3

Sunday, Sept. 25 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals If Cincy favored, note Marvin Lewis 2-12 vs. spread in role since 2009, 6-20 since 2007. Slight to 49ers, based on extended Cincy chalk numbers.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Belichick has owned Bills since losing 31-0 in 2003 opener, winning 15 in a row since (10-4-1 vs. line). Patriots have really dominated at Orchard Park since 2003, 6-0-1 vs. line in the seven games since. Belichick also "over" 18-3 last 21 since late 2009. Patriots and "over," based on series and Belichick "totals" trends.
Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints Saints just 11-20-1 vs. line last 31 on board since mid 2009. NO 7-15-1 last 23 in reg. season against spread. Kubiak "over" 7-3 away since late '09. Texans and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles Eagles have won and covered last six in series. G-Men 2-7 vs. line last 9 on board since late LY. Coughlin only 2-3 as road dog LY after solid 10-4 mark in role previous three years. Eagles, based on team trends.
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns Sparano 18-6 vs. line last 24 on road, also "under" 15-6 last 21 on road (opposite of home "over" trends). Browns 2-8 vs. line since mid 2010. Dolphins and "under," based on Sparano trends.
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans Broncos entered 2011 just 4-9 last 13 on board as visitor. Titans only 7-13 last 20 as chalk, however. Tenn. "over" 12-7-1 last 20 at LP Field, Broncos "over" 18-5 last 23 since late 2009. "Over" and Slight to Broncos, based on team and "totals" trends.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings Counting preseason, Lions have won last 9 and covered last 10 games on board. Note that last six in this series "under" as well. Lions and "under," based team and "totals" trends.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers The two '95 expansionists meet. Jags "over" 7-3 last 10 on road. Panthers only 5 covers last 18 on board, 3-6 vs. line at home since LY. Slight to Jags and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Sept. 25 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers Norv just 4-9-1 vs. line in first three games of season since arriving at SD in 2007. Norv also "under" last 4 at home. Slight to Chiefs and "under," based on Norv trends.
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders Heidi Game revisited, 43 years later! Rex Ryan 13-4 vs. points last 17 on road. Rexy also "over" 16-6 last 21 since late '09. Raiders "over" 12-6 since LY. "Over" and Jets, based on "totals" and team trends.
Baltimore Ravens at St. Louis Rams Note Rams "under" 14-6 last 20 since late '09 for Spagnuolo. Rams 7-4 last 11 as dog as well. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

Sunday, Sept. 25 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Road team has covered last five in series. Bucs 3-16-1 vs. line last 20 at Raymond James Stadium. Falcons lost at Chicago in opener but still 14-8 vs. line last 22 on road. Falcs also "over" 5-1 last 6 on road. Falcons and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Pete Carroll won and covered both vs. Whisenhunt LY after Cards had won and covered previous 4 in series. "Overs" 7-3 last 10 in series. Pete Carroll "over" 14-5-1 since arriving LY. "Over" and Seahawks, based on "totals" and team trends.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears Pack had covered 4 straight vs. Bears prior to LY before 2-1 SU and 1-2 vs. line in 2010 vs. Chicago. Pack 12-5 vs. line last 17 on road. Last seven in series "under" as well. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

Sunday, Sept. 25 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts Tomlin only 8-14 as road chalk since taking over Steelers in '07. Slight to Colts, based on extended Tomlin road chalk marks.

Monday, Sept. 26 (8:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys Skins covered both LY and last three in series. Shan 5-2 vs. line last 7 away in 2010. Jerry Jones just 1-5 as home chalk LY. Note Cowboys "over" 15-3 since 2010. Redskins, based on team trends. Slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

2 comments:

  1. Additional Random Notes From WalterFootball.com

    Detroit is listed as a road favorite for the first time since 2008, but the stunning stat is the 0-7 SU/ATS mark since 1997 when laying points on the highway. In fact, the last time the Lions covered as a road favorite was under Wayne Fontes in 1996 at Tampa Bay.

    The Steelers are 0-3 ATS the last three times when laying at least 9 ½ points away from Heinz Field, including two SU losses at Cleveland and Kansas City in 2009.

    West Coast teams are 24-42 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast games coming off a home contest

    Small road underdogs (1-2.5 points) have major issues covering the spread after a loss as a home underdog. Teams in that situation are on an emotional low, and traveling makes things more difficult, especially when they have to battle a team considered slightly worse than them. Teams in this situation are 4-16 against the spread since 2002.

    Gary Kubiak is 10-2 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

    Tom Coughlin is 4-7 ATS after Monday Night Football.

    Tony Sparano is 17-7 ATS on the road.

    The Jaguars are an underdog playing their second-consecutive road game off a loss. Teams fare well in this scenario (121-69 ATS since 2002). Jack Del Rio is 5-2 ATS in this situation.

    Underdogs following a loss of 28-plus points are 55-30 against the spread since 2002 if you exclude the weird Week 17 games.

    San Diego hasn't covered a spread of 14 or more this decade (0-3 ATS).

    0-2 Teams that made the playoffs the previous year are 13-7 ATS in Week 3 since 2003 (7-3 as favorites).

    Visiting favorites coming off a road victory are 34-19 against the spread since 2002.

    Bears are 7-3 ATS after giving up 30 or more points in a loss since 2005.

    Steelers are 2-8 ATS on the road as favorites of -5 or more since 2006.

    The Cowboys currently lead in the NFL with 10 sacks.

    Home favorites coming off a road win of 1-3 points are 24-42 ATS since 2000.

    ReplyDelete
  2. WEEK 3 NOTES: Divisional Trends
    Bills-Patriots
    - Patriots have won the last 15 meetings.
    - Chan Gailey's ATS Record as Divisional Dog
    of 7+ is 1-1

    Giants-Eagles
    - Road Team has won 6 of the last 8 meetings.
    - Tom Coughlin's ATS Record as Divisional Dog
    of 7+ is 2-0

    Lions-Vikings
    - Vikings have won 21 of the last 23 meetings.
    - Lions are 6-15 ATS against losing teams the
    previous 20 instances.

    Chiefs-Chargers
    - Home Team has won 19 of the last 26 meetings
    (Chargers have won 6 of the last 7).
    - Todd Haley's ATS Record as Divisional Dog
    of 7+ is 1-2

    Falcons-Buccaneers
    - Falcons have won the last 5 meetings.

    Cardinals-Seahawks
    - Seahawks have won the last 2 meetings SU & ATS.

    Bears-Packers
    - Home Team has won 6 of the last 8 meetings.
    Jay Cutler is 1-4 vs. the Packers.

    Cowboys-Redskins
    - Road Team has covered 6 of the past 7 meetings.

    ReplyDelete