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Thursday, October 13, 2011

NFL Tech Trends - Week 6

Tech Trends - Week 6
October 11, 2011
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
Sunday, Oct 9 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers Rams 0-4 SU and vs. line TY, now no covers last six since late 2010. Rams also "under" 5-2 last 7. Pack 6-1 vs. line last 7 at Lambeau Field. Pack and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers Jags on 1-7 spread skid since late LY. Jags also "under" 4-1 TY. Steelers 6-1 vs. line last 7 at Heinz Field, and home team has covered in all five Steelers games TY Steelers and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins Skins are 7-1 vs. line last 8 since late LY. Eagles no covers last 4 TY, and Andy Reid only 4-8-1 vs. points last 13 vs. Skins despite that 59-28 romp at FedEx Field LY. Skins also "under" 9-2 their last 11 on board since late 2010. Skins and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions Lions have won 12 straight (including preseason) and are undefeated vs. line (12-0-1) their last 13 outings after last Monday's 24-13 win vs. Bears. Lions also 18-3 vs. line since 2010 and "over" 13-6-2 since then as well ("over" 4-1 TY). Harbaugh making impact, however, at 4-0-1 vs. line already for 49ers. Lions and "over," based on Lions trends.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons Cam Newton has covered last four TY as he makes a difference in Carolina, while Falcons now 1-4 vs. line last 5 since late LY. Falcons 4-1 vs. line last five meetings. Falcons "over" 13-7-1 last 20, Cam "over" 4-1 TY. -"Over" and slight to Falcons, based on "totals" and team trends.
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals Marvin Lewis 6-21 as chalk since 2007, 1-9 last 10 as Paul Brown Stadium chalk. Colts, based on Lewis chalk woes.
Buffalo Bills at New York Giants Giants have covered last 3 TY, "over" 21-13 last 34 at home as well. Bills "over" 5-1 since late 2010. "Over," based "totals" trends.

Sunday, Oct 16 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens Ravens 3-1 vs. line TY and "over" all 4, now "over" 5 straight since late 2010. Kubiak no covers his last four as dog and 2-6 vs. spread last 8 on road. Slight to Ravens, based on team trends.
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders Raiders first home game post-Al Davis. Raiders "over" 16-10 last 26 since late '09, "over" 7-2 last nine at home. Raiders were 3-2 as home chalk LY after wretched marks in role previously. Browns 2-10 vs. line last 12 on board, and "over" 3-1 to start 2011. "Over" and Raiders, based on "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Oct 16 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots Belichick "over" 20-4 last 24, Dallas "over" 16-4 since LY. Cowboys have also covered last 4 as dog since late 2010. "Over" and slight to Cowboys, based on "totals" and team trends.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Bucs only 4-17-1 last 22 vs. spread at home. Last five meetings in series covered by the road team, including three straight Saints covers at Raymond James Stadium. Four of last five in series "under" as well. Saints, based on team and series road trends.

Sunday, Oct 16 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears Vikes won last week vs. Cards for first SU win of 2011, but still on 5-11-1 spread skid mid-2010. Bears have won and covered last three in series. Bears, based on team trends.

Monday, Oct 17 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Miami has won and covered 4 of last 5 in series. Sparano 18-7 vs. spread last 25 away from home. Jets "over" 24-7 last 30 since late 2009. Dolphins and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

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  1. Kosmo TroubleOctober 13, 2011 at 2:01 PM

    Inside the Numbers - Week 6
    October 11, 2011
    By Kevin Rogers
    VegasInsider.com

    Sunday, Oct 16 (1:00 p.m. ET)
    Matchup Inside the Numbers
    St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers
    STL: 1-7 ATS L8
    STL: 4-0 ATS L4 off bye
    GBP: 9-3 ATS L12 home favorite
    GBP: 8-1 ATS L9 home vs non-division

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers
    JAX: 1-6 ATS L7 underdog
    JAX: 0-5 ATS L5 off loss
    PIT: 8-1-1 ATS L10 home off home game
    PIT: 6-2 ATS L8 home vs non-division

    Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
    PHI: 9-2 ATS L11 away vs division
    PHI: 3-7 ATS L10 off loss
    WSH: 2-6 ATS L8 favorite
    WSH: 5-10 ATS L15 home vs division

    San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions
    SFO: 8-2 'over' L10
    SFO: 2-5 ATS L7 off win
    DET: 9-1 ATS L10
    DET: 5-0 ATS L5 home favorite

    Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
    CAR: 3-6 ATS L9 away vs division
    CAR: 5-1-1 'over' L7 away
    ATL: 9-2 ATS L11 off loss
    ATL: 8-0 ATS L8 off DD loss

    Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals
    IND: 5-3-1 ATS L9 away
    IND: 2-8 ATS L10 dog off loss
    CIN: 1-10 ATS L11 home favorite
    CIN: 4-8 ATS L12 home vs non-division

    Buffalo Bills at New York Giants
    BUF: 2-4 ATS L6 away vs NFC
    BUF: 6-3 ATS L9 away underdogs
    NYG: 4-10 ATS L14 home favorites
    NYG: 4-6 ATS L10 home vs AFC

    Sunday, Oct 16 (4:05 p.m. ET)
    Matchup Inside the Numbers
    Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
    HOU: 2-6 ATS L8 underdog
    HOU: 8-3 'over' L11 off loss
    BAL: 8-1 ATS L9 off bye
    BAL: 12-3 ATS L15 home vs non-division

    Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders
    CLE: 3-1 ATS L4 off bye
    CLE: 1-5 ATS L6 underdog
    OAK: 2-12 ATS L14 home favorite
    OAK: 3-6 ATS L9 home vs non-division

    Sunday, Oct 16 (4:15 p.m. ET)
    Matchup Inside the Numbers
    Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
    DAL: 5-1 ATS L6 off bye
    DAL: 7-4 'over' L11 away vs AFC
    NEP: 8-4 ATS L12 before bye
    NEP: 6-2-1 ATS L9 off division win

    New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    NOR: 3-8 ATS L11 away favorite
    NOR: 10-6 ATS L16 away vs division
    TAM: 1-9 ATS L10 home underdog
    TAM: 5-2-1 ATS L8 off loss

    Sunday, Oct 16 (8:25 p.m. ET)
    Matchup Inside the Numbers
    Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
    MIN: 1-5 ATS L6 off win
    MIN: 2-8 ATS L10 away vs division
    CHI: 3-7 ATS L10 home favorite
    CHI: 2-6 ATS L8 home favorite vs division


    Monday, Oct 17 (8:35 p.m. ET)
    Matchup Inside the Numbers
    Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
    MIA: 15-6 ATS L21 away underdog
    MIA: 3-1 ATS L4 off bye
    NYJ: 1-9 ATS L10 favorite off loss
    NYJ: 6-3 ATS L9 vs division

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