PICKS-10/31 - NFL

Week 8 - Sunday October 31, 2010 Italicized comments are by NICK BOGDANOVICH

DENVER @ SAN FRANCISCO 1:00 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 207 DEN XXXXXX SPREAD % 53 42 (2-5) (1-2 A) 208 SFO X -2 (1-6) (1-2 H) Josh McDaniels is 0-3 ATS as a favorite after losing 2+ games. Mike Singletary is undefeated (4-0) against the number when coming off a loss as a favorite.

San Francisco got some early support even though third string quarterback Troy Smith is going to start. That tells you how little respect sharps had for the first two stringers...and how little respect they have for Denver right now.

KOSMO sez: I’m not fond of this game at all. Both teams, obviously, need to right their ship. The good news, Denver has 6 system plays (X’s) that apply and SF has 1. The bad news, not all of the Denver plays are for a positive %. I’ll probably play Denver very small or pass

JACKSONVILLE @ DALLAS 1:00 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 209 JAC XXX SPREAD % 51 42.5 (3-4) (1-2 A) 210 DAL X -6.5 (1-5) (0-3 H) Sharps are basically taking Jacksonville at +7, but not playing the game at 6.5. If the public hits Dallas over the weekend and moves the line back up, sharps will take the full TD again.

KOSMO sez: I agree with Nick here. At 6.5 it’s a crap shoot but, Dallas is still a Squares’ team and will no doubt take a lot of late money. Will they go to 7? I wouldn’t count on it. I’ll roll those dice and take Jacksonville and the points. Trust me; Dallas has bigger problems than Kitna at QB. 3 to 1 on the system plays doesn’t hurt either.

WASHINGTON @ DETROIT 1:00 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 211 WAS X SPREAD % 65 45 (4-3) (2-1 A) 212 DET X -2.5 (1-5) (1-1 H) Big move here on Detroit from -1 up to -3. That's because a lot of sharps watched the Washington/Chicago game last week! Both the Redskins and Bears looked awful. Detroit as a bye, is getting it's #1 signal caller back, and showed a lot of spirit in a recent home win over St. Louis. Sharps stopped hitting Detroit when it reached a field goal. They're happy with anything less than that

KOSMO sez: As my good friend Redskin Bill says, “The ‘Skins always play to the level of their competition and that’s what makes them hard to bet.”. Detroit gets Stafford back this week and yes they pounded the Rams, but for some reason I get the feeling they’ll find a way to lose. Now, that’s not saying I think the Redskins are a better team, but you have to admit, the ‘Skin are at least hanging on to some wins. Mike Shanahan's team is 4-2-1 ATS, while being involved in six games decided by six points or less. Being listed as a favorite is very rare for Detroit, who is 3-7-1 ATS since 2006, including the blowout victory of St. Louis as three-point 'chalk.' Washington has a slight advantage in the system plays and will therefore be my play.

GREEN BAY @ NEW YORK 1:00 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 213 GNB XX SPREAD % 51 42.5 (4-3) (1-2 A) 214 NYJ -6 (5-1) (2-1 H) Teams with five or more consecutive victories are just 26-42 against the spread at home since 2002.

A move here on the Jets from -4.5 up to -6, with Green Bay coming off a huge Sunday Night game...and the Jets off a bye. That's two straight bye teams that got early money. The Packers have injuries...and the Jets will be fresh as a daisy. Sharps didn't drive the line up to -7. But, they did hit early knowing that the public was likely to back the favorite here.

KOSMO sez: Been waiting for this game since the beginning of the season. Two projected division winners’ tête de tête. I’m not buying into the GB is beat-up crap. My thinking is that the sharps nudged this line up and will come in heavy on the other side when the public takes it to the number they want. I’m going with the Packers and hope to get 7.

CAROLINA @ ST. LOUIS 1:00 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 215 CAR XXX 37 (1-5) (0-2 A) 216 STL XX SPREAD % 82 -3 (3-4) (3-1 H) O’fer teams, who won in week 7 are 22-11ATS in their last 33 (since ’92) and 9-0 ATS since ‘05

No interest on either team side yet. St. Louis will probably stay at -3 all week barring injury news.

KOSMO sez: I really liked the Rams at the first part of the week, and then I found the “O’fer trend” and had to rethink a little. Also of note, “Dead-lines” have been a play against trend so far this season, winning only 30% of the time. This will be the first of three chances the Panthers have to win a second game this year. The other two are also road games at TB and Cleveland. This will be their easiest chance. I’ll give the nod to Carolina.

MIAMI @ CINCINNATI 1:00 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 217 MIA X SPREAD % 82 43.5 (3-3) (3-0 A) 218 CIN XX -1.5 (2-4) (1-1 H) Marvin Lewis is 1-5 ATS as a favorite after losing 2+ games.

The line is near pick-em, and it's tough to trust either team late in close games the way they're playing right now.

KOSMO sez: I’ll say it, Cincinnati Sucks! This team has a QB that can’t seem to throw the ball down field, a RB that can’t run, and two WRs’ that can’t catch and all starters! If Miami doesn’t win this game, I’ll stop drinking beer. for the rest of the day! OK, for an hour.

BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY 1:00 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 219 BUF XXX 46 (0-6) (0-3 A) 220 KAN XX SPREAD % 60 -7.5 (4-2) (3-0 H) Teams with 3 or more consecutive losses are good bets on the road, owning a 92-69 ATS since ’00.

A lot of interest on the dog and after Buffalo's strong offensive showing in Baltimore last week. An opening line of Kansas City -9 is down to -7.5 (and is staying in the teaser window, which means oddsmakers are okay with taking a shot on Buffalo to pull the upset).

KOSMO sez: I have a standing rule; “O’fers on the road are a dangerous breed and O’fers at 7+ are very, very dangerous. The Bills may not win this game but, they will play a full sixty minutes. That’s good enough for me to lay my money down.

TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO 4:05 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 221 TEN X SPREAD % 66 44.5 (5-2) (3-0 A) 222 SDG XXXX -3.5 (2-5) (2-1 H) Jeff Fisher is 2-10 ATS on the West Coast since 1999. Norv Turner is 8-3 ATS coming off a loss as a favorite.

Not much movement here. Sharps are thinking about Tennessee at +3.5, but are hoping the public takes it up to four over the weekend. Squares will bet San Diego at home no matter what. Sharps won on this field last week with New England. In some games, a lack of early movement tells you who the sharps like. San Diego is a public team, sharps want to wait to see what they can get.

KOSMO sez: Think about this for a minute, the Chargers are sixth against the run, having limited five of their previous six opponents to less than four yards per carry, first against the pass, have the most sacks in the NFL (25) and have a record of 2-5! Why? Turn-overs and one dimensional play. I have to admit, I’m not a fan of Rivers. His play reminds me of Farve, me, me, me, it’s all about me. And please don’t get me started on Norv. All that said, I can’t see SD losing two in a row at home. Their two wins have come at home. I’ll bite one more time with SD. There are 4 system plays that apply to SD, but none of them show a significant advantage.

TAMPA BAY @ ARIZONA 4:15 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 223 TAM XX SPREAD % 72 39.5 (4-2) (2-0 A) 224 ARI X -3 (3-3) (2-0 H) Arizona opened at -3.5, and it got knocked right down to a field goal. Tampa Bay has impressed sharps this year when playing other teams in their class. Arizona needs lucky breaks to beat anybody lately. Sharps don't think that luck will hold up.

KOSMO sez: I suppose the question with this game is, do you go with a QB that seems to be coming around with a WR that is the talk of the league, on the road. Or, go with a rookie QB coming off a concussion with no offensive line, at home. Before you decide also consider this, the “Dead-line trend applies here and TD qualifies on a system play hitting at 80%. Decided? I have and will go with the Bucs.

SEATTLE @ OAKLAND 4:15 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 225 SEA XXX 42 (4-2) (1-2 A) 226 OAK XXX SPREAD % 60 -2.5 (3-4) (2-1 H) Raiders are 0-9 ATS as a favorite since 2006. Since Dec. ‘07, Oakland has a 1-12 SU, 3-10 ATS record following a victory. Seahawks are 12-25 ATS on the road since 2006.

An opener of 1.5 is up to 2.5 (but not yet three, which tells you something). Note that Seattle has been a big steam team from sharp action the past two Sundays. I think the sharps who didn't like Oakland would step in pretty hard on the Seahawks at +3. There's not always universal agreement amongst sharps. Market moves are sometimes reflecting only those who have bet so far.

KOSMO sez: The system plays are even in this game. My guess is that the late money comes in on Oakland, pushing the line up to 3, maybe 3.5 by game time, because of Seattle’s terrible road record, which I don’t feel applies here because of the new coach. I like the Seahawks here.

MINNESOTA @ NEW ENGLAND 4:15 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 227 MIN XXX 44 (2-4) (0-3 A) 228 NWE SPREAD % 80 -6 (5-1) (3-0 H) Home favs coming off road win of 1-3 points are 23-49 ATS since ‘00 (Wks 2-10 only); Belichick 0-1. Brad Childress is 6-2 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Big move here on New England from -3.5 up to -7 as pessimism grew throughout the week regarding Brett Favre's ankle. He's either going to play hobbled, which could be a disaster for the Vikings. Or, Tavaris Jackson will come off the pine rusty for a road start against a very tough opponent. Some of this was position taking also to set up a middle. This is a high profile TV game. Squares are likely to bet New England given Favre's condition. Some guys who didn't have an opinion took the Pats just to set up the middle possibility.

KOSMO sez: I predicted Farve’s career would end somewhere between game 6 and game 10. He started crying about his elbow in game 6. In game 7 we found out he has a fractured heel. In game 8? My bet now is, he doesn’t make it to game 10 (Chicago). Can Jackson lead the Vikings to the playoffs? Can it really get any worse? I hate NE, but this ain’t no beauty contest. Let’s get paid and ride the Pats to the bank.

PITTSBURGH @ NEW ORLEANS 8:25 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 229 PIT XX SPREAD % 60 44 (5-1) (3-0 A) 230 NOR XX -1 (4-3) (2-2 H) Tough one here. New Orleans is the defending Super Bowl champion, so it's very weird to see them around pick-em at home. Pittsburgh has the look of the next champion, but didn't impress last week at Miami. An opener of pick-em moved to New Orleans by 1. But, I'm not sensing a lot of passion for either team right now. Might be a pass game for sharps unless the public moves hard on one team. Then, sharps will fade the public. KOSMO sez: The “Terrible Towels” are back in style. Well, that’s the talk at the water cooler anyhow. And, yes, it’s hard as hell to repeat as SB champs. According to Joe Public, that’s all you need to know. Were the Saints looking ahead when they lost to the Brownies. I don’t think so and actually find that excuse over used. It was just a shitty game for NO. All teams have one and who knows, Pittsburgh’s could be next. Lest we forget, Quick Draw McBrees has thrown a few ropes in his days. Walter Cherepinsky at WalterFootball.com made this comment about the Steeler defense vs. Drew Brees; “Brees is still one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL and has tons of great weapons at his disposal. Brees is quick to get the ball out and is very difficult to blitz, so Dick LeBeau's chaotic schemes probably won't affect the reigning Super Bowl MVP as it would other quarterbacks.” Both Thomas and Bush are listed as questionable for the game. The system plays are even as of now, but if NO ends up a dog, they fall into a system play that has been 100% correct this year. As of now, NO the play for me.

Week 8 - Monday November 1, 2010

HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS 8:35 PM Game Time Record Teams Odds Win-Loss 231 HOU X 50 (4-2) (2-0 A) 232 IND SPREAD % 52 -5.5 (4-2) (2-0 H) Indianapolis opened at -6, but is down to -5.5. Sharps respect Houston as a dog of this size with their improved running game. One might have thought that sharps would wait to see if the squares bet Manning hard in the revenge spot. So many sharps wanted Houston and at least six that some decided not to wait.

KOSMO sez: I’ll talk about this one on Monday.