1)Pittsburgh plays a very physical style of defense, often with two or three players in on a tackle. James Harrison has been fined multiple times this season for hits the league deems "illegal".
It is reasonable to conclude that a team, coming off a physical game against Pittsburgh would be beat up and it may affect their play in the following game. I decide to look into it and found that there was an effect on those teams. They won. All of them. Atlanta, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Cleveland. Each of these five teams won the next game in which they played. Last week Pittsburgh played Miami. This week the Dolphins travel to the Queen City to face the Bengals. I'm just pointing out the facts. Take it however you might like to....
2)This week I will remind you that winless teams are great ats bets from week 8 on against good but not great teams (winning teams but not .750 or better). The winless teams in this situation are 22-2 ATS and one of the ats losses was by 0.5 pt. And don't be scared of them playing on the road. 10 of those 24 games were played on the road and the winless team covered all 10.
Buffalo stats are horrible, but let's take a close look at their schedule. First they lost a close one against Miami, and Miami is stil unbeaten on the road and can compete with anyone. In week 2 they lost in Green Bay against a Packers team that looked unbeatable at the time. Then in week 3 Buffalo lost a close one against one of the best teams in the NFL, the 5-1 Patriots who are, by the way, stil unbeaten at home. In week 4 Buffalo lost against the 5-1 Jets who are also the hottest team in the NFL with a 5 game winning streak SU & ATS. Finally last week Buffalo lost in overtime against another winning and playoff team Baltimore that was supposed to run all over the Bills. So, it is not a surprise at all that Sagarin has Buffalo's strength of schedule ranked #1 in the NFL. At the same time, KC's strength of schedule is ranked #26 as they only faced two winning teams YTD and lost both those games.
Kansas City is playing well but last week they let Jaguars hang in there for more than 3.5 quarters, and Jacksonville played T.Baumman who, by the way, is their 3rd or 4th string quarterback. That tells me all I need to know about KC. They are young but they are getting a big head way too soon. With two road divisional games on deck KC will be in a flat spot this week.
Have you analyzed what happens the week after a winless team wins their first game?
After week 7, 1 win teams after their first win are 22-11 ATS in last 33 (since 1992) and 9-0 ATS since 2005.
3)St.Louis played really well last week but lost the game with 9 secs left as TB scored 15 unanswered points and held the Rams scoreless in the second half. They are 3-4 on the season which is great for a team that was underdog in all 7 games so far this season. But here they are now laying points for the very first time since december 2nd 2007 (they were underdogs in last 43 games !) and that imo isnt a grat situation for a rookie QB. For the very first time in his pro career he is actually supposed to win. It is not going to be as easy as it looks on paper. Btw, 5 defensive starters for STL are questionable for this game. The Rams defense is banged up.
4)The #2 scoring defense and #2 rushing defense are coming to Oakland. The home side has the #26 scoring defense and #28 rushing defense. Why is this so important ? Because both teams depend a lot on their rushing offense. Seattle is finally playing a road game at 1 pm pacific time after playing last two road games at 1 pm et. This series has been dominated by the home team but most of their meetings were played in pre season. It is a concern here but with Oakland winning in Denver last week, I like my chances with Seattle. Oakland is 11-23 ATS in last 34 after playing Denver and 2-10 in ATS in last 12 after beating Denver and 1-7 ATS after upseting Denver. Next week they play against the divisional leader KC.
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