October 28, 2010
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
There are no road favorites in the NFL this week, but the theme for the Week 8 card is the number of below .500 home favorites. Five clubs that have two wins or less are laying points, which begs the question if they are overlooked teams or sucker bets. We'll take a look at this quintet, starting with the rematch of Super Bowl XXIV at London's Wembley Stadium between two struggling clubs.
Broncos vs. Niners (-1, 42) - 1:00 PM EST
Two teams that were expected to do more at this point travel overseas in hopes of finding a victory in London. The Niners lost to previously winless Carolina last week, the third defeat for San Francisco this season as a road favorite. The cellar-dwellers of the NFC West have changed out one Smith (Alex) for another (Troy) at quarterback as the former Heisman Trophy winner from Ohio State will get the start this Sunday.
The Broncos won't be let off the hook for probably the most embarrassing loss all season in the NFL, allowing 59 points to the inconsistent Raiders in a 45-point home setback. Denver had to be feeling like it was turning the corner following a last-minute loss to the Jets, but Josh McDaniels' squad is just 5-12 ATS since starting 6-0 last season. The Broncos have been the league's best 'over' team, cashing it in six of seven games.
The Niners are 0-5 ATS and 1-4 SU as a favorite this season, including outright losses to the Seahawks, Chiefs, Panthers, and Eagles. San Francisco has lost four games by three points or less, while scoring 20 points or less five times this season. Both teams rank in the bottom six of the league in rushing offense, but the Niners will look to slow down Denver's ineffective ground game that is averaging just 68.4 yards/game.
Jaguars at Cowboys (-6 ½, 42 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
Dallas was in big trouble before Monday night's 41-35 home defeat to New York, sending the Cowboys down to 1-5. Wade Phillips' team found themselves in hot water when Tony Romo broke his left collarbone in the second quarter, as the Cowboys squandered a 20-7 lead with the Giants scoring 31 unanswered points in one span. Dallas looks to turn things around when another struggling club in Jacksonville invades Cowboys Stadium.
The Jags have lost two straight in ugly fashion following consecutive wins over the Colts and Bills. Jacksonville will get David Garrard back under center after missing the Kansas City loss with a concussion. The Jags are 4-10 ATS since November 2008 as a road underdog, including a 1-5 ATS run since a last-minute victory over the Jets last season.
The Cowboys are 0-4 SU/ATS as a favorite, including three losses at home. However, Dallas has bounced back nicely following a poor defensive performance as the Cowboys own a 9-0 ATS mark since 2005 after allowing 35 points or more in their last game. Dallas had outgained each of its first five opponents before allowing New York to rack up 497 yards, including 200 yards on the ground.
Redskins at Lions (-3, 45) - 1:00 PM EST
Washington is listed as an underdog for the seventh time this season, but the Redskins keep finding a way to cash following last Sunday's 17-14 victory at Chicago. Mike Shanahan's team is 4-2-1 ATS, while being involved in six games decided by six points or less. The Lions come in off the bye week going for their second straight home victory after dumping the Rams, 44-6 in Week 5.
Detroit has been great to backers this season from a pointspread standpoint by covering five of six games. The only ATS defeat came at Minnesota in Week 3 as the Lions fell short of a cover by losing 24-10 as 13-point 'dogs. Being listed as a favorite is very rare for Detroit, who is 3-7-1 ATS since 2006, including the blowout victory of St. Louis as three-point 'chalk.'
The Redskins have been outgained in all seven games, but have found a way to hang around thanks to their defense allowing 14 or less points in three of their last four contests. Washington was knocked off at Ford Field last season as 6 ½-point road favorites, falling to Detroit, 19-14, as the Lions snapped a 19-game losing streak dating back to 2007.
Dolphins at Bengals (-2, 43 ½)- 1:00 PM EST
Miami is still seething after the disputed Ben Roethlisberger fumble in a 23-22 home loss to Pittsburgh. Following Big Ben's fumble, the ball was placed at the one-yard line resulting in a field goal, even though the officials weren't sure who recovered the ball in the end zone. Despite the Dolphins covering as three-point 'dogs, Miami sits at 3-3 as it heads north to Cincinnati to take on the struggling Bengals.
Cincinnati rallied from a 24-3 deficit to take a 25-24 lead at Atlanta last Sunday, but the Falcons scored 15 unanswered points to win the game, 39-32. The Bengals look to snap a three-game skid, as Marvin Lewis' team is 0-7 ATS the last seven games as a home favorite. To make matters worse for the Bengals, Cincinnati is 3-15-1 ATS as home 'chalk' under Lewis after allowing 20 points or more, including the Week 5 setback to Tampa Bay.
The Dolphins continue to be an odd team to figure out, winning all three road games at Green Bay, Minnesota, and Buffalo. Under Tony Sparano, Miami is 12-3 ATS as an away underdog, including the victories over the Packers and Vikings. The secondary will be tested against Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens, as the Dolphins have allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for seven touchdowns and one interception the last four games.
Titans at Chargers (-3 ½, 44 ½) - 4:15 PM EST
The defending AFC West champions have fallen to 2-5 out of the gate and it doesn't look like the Chargers are getting up. San Diego suffered its first home loss of the season with a 23-20 setback to New England, despite limiting the Patriots to 179 yards. The Chargers have outgained opponents in six of seven games, but the inability to score touchdowns in big spots has put this team in last place of the AFC West.
On the flip side, the Titans continue to impress with three straight wins, while scoring at least 30 points in each victory. There is no reason to underestimate Tennessee, who has tallied 29 points or more five times, even though Kerry Collins and Vince Young have shared time at quarterback. The Titans have taken care of business in two opportunities as an underdog with victories at the Giants and Cowboys, despite getting outgained by at least 190 yards in each game.
The Bolts have normally started slow under Norv Turner, but with November looming, this team needs victories. San Diego sits 2 ½ games behind Kansas City in the division race, as the Chargers have covered just two of seven games this season. The Chargers are 8-5 ATS in Turner's three-year tenure at home off a loss, including a 2-1 ATS mark this season.
Las Vegas Money Moves
ReplyDeleteOctober 29, 2010
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
More Favre Drama
Brett Favre is walking around Vikings headquarters on Thursday without his protective boot on and appearing to have no limp whatsoever. Reporters and team officials are all amazed at the speedy recovery from two fractures that occurred just last Sunday night at Green Bay. Vikings coach Brad Childress now looks like he doesn’t have the daunting task of telling Favre he has to sit, so in the process, now Favre can extend his cherished NFL record to 292 consecutive starts this week at New England.
What does that mean to the Las Vegas sportsbooks in regards to the line? Absolutely nothing!
A few books have kept the game off the board this week until hearing more information on the injury, while other books have used the key word of “fractured ankle“ as enough info to comfortably keep up a line. Prior to the injury, the Patriots would have been 4-point favorites. With the injury, the Patriots went to -5 and -6 at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book. Over at the Mirage, when the alert came out that Favre was ‘probable,’ the Patriots went to -6 ½ and -7 (-105) as people are betting more favorably on the Patriots now that the injured Favre is playing.
Hilton Race and Sports Executive Director Jay Kornegay believes that the Favre we’ll see this week will be a shadow of his former self.
“You’re looking at a Favre that’s maybe 80% this week of what he’s been this year so far. We’re essentially getting a Brett FAV this week,” Kornegay said jokingly leaving the “R” and “E” out in a reference to the diluted product the Vikings will have on the field this week.
It’s very probable that his entire show, without the boot on, for everyone to see Thursday was an attempt to garner support in his attempt to start game No. 292. It‘s like he‘s saying, “Hey everyone, look at me, I’m healthy....no limp, see.”
Why else would someone with a fractured ankle take off the boot until game day?
Based on the relative quiet nature of the line movement around town, it’s apparent that most books believe Favre’s ankle is not game ready.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants Odds Director Tony Sinisi sent the Favre probable alert to their clients with a recommendation of Patriots -6 ½.
“We’re treating this like a Favre “out” number,” said Sinisi. “Favre is going to be physically immobile and I expect their game plan to reflect that, taking much out of what Favre brings to the equation in a normal game out of this one.”
Sinisi also said he expects to see a bigger role this week out of running back Adrian Peterson.
That could be good news for Vikings supporters this week. Peterson routinely gets left out of plays called for him as Favre greedily audibles his own plays. A little less Favre and more Peterson could be just what the Vikings need to be competitive this week. Fourteen turnovers by Favre through six games isn’t acceptable for any NFL quarterback, not even a gimpy Favre.
A wounded, ego driven Favre, who is showing signs of his age, should do the right thing and sit after he takes the first series of snaps to keep his streak alive. Or better yet, just sit and allow backup Tavares Jackson to start the game and show his team that it’s not all about him and his personal records. But that surely won’t happen, because in Favre's eyes, it is all about him and no one else.
Cowboys might be Fine without Romo
ReplyDeleteThere are other games of interest this week that don’t quite involve the drama of Favre, but have a much bigger impact than him in regards to the spreads beginning with QB Tony Romo and the Cowboys. Dallas would have been an 11-point favorite with Romo playing this week against Jacksonville, but are now -6 ½ almost everywhere with him ‘out.’
We saw the Cowboys look miserable in 2008 when Romo missed three games going 1-2 with Brad Johnson at the helm, but I honestly believe John Kitna will perform better than that. I have a feeling that Kitna may even make the Cowboys a better, more balanced offensive attack, something we haven’t seen all year from Dallas.
Dallas definitely needs a boost of some kind and if they aren’t willing to fire Wade Phillips, the quarterback is a good place to start. Granted, Romo puts up good numbers in the box score, but the box score doesn’t reflect the timing of his bad decisions. When the Cowboys need Romo at his best in key moments this season, he has faltered. Laying the points looks like a good deal against the Jaguars 30th ranked defense.
49ers start a New Mr. Smith
The San Francisco 49ers are 1-point favorites over Denver in their game being played at Wembley Stadium in London. The 49ers will start Troy Smith this week against a shamed Broncos squad coming off a 59-14 beat down, on their home field, against the hated Raiders. Or maybe the Raiders aren’t hated anymore. Maybe Denver’s instilled hate for Oakland and their history against each other left with Mike Shanahan.
This week’s line is definitely a reflection of that blowout loss. The 49ers starting Troy Smith over David Carr while Alex Smith mends baffled many, but Jay Kornegay saw coach Mike Singletary’s logic in it.
“I was initially surprised, but I think Troy Smith’s mobility and similarities to Alex Smith’s game was the deciding factor and they can game plan similarly rather than change so much to accommodate Carr's style, “ said Kornegay. “David Carr just can’t move. My past memories of him playing, sad to say, are being sacked and turning the ball over.“
Kornegay leans towards the Broncos in this one stating that their last game was something that was a just a freak happening.
“Denver has been very consistent against every team they played up until last week and have played some of their best ball away from Mile High stadium.”
Other NFL Moves
ReplyDeleteThe Lions welcome back QB Matt Stafford this week and have been bet up from 2-point opening favorites to -2 ½ against the Redskins.
The Packers have found supporters coming off their big Sunday night win over the Vikings. The rested Jets opened as a 6 ½-point favorite and have been bet against to -6.
The Dolphins have found some believers in their road performances after going 3-0 thus year as they roll into Cincinnati. The Bengals opened a short 2 ½-point favorite and are down to -2.
San Diego still has some faithful out there that believe they are still very good at home as they moved from a -3 (even) to -3 ½ against the Titans. QB Vince Young is expected to play for the Titans, but maybe that’s why the bets came in.
The Saints resorted back to their old ways in a home loss to Cleveland last week. Following their Week 6 win (31-6) at Tampa Bay, many us thought the Saints had figured it all out and they’d go on a run like they did in 2009, but the Browns said not so fast. This week they opened pick’em at home against the Steelers and have been bet up to -1 ½. Maybe the Saints just aren’t that good and are about to experience the same fate that many Super Bowl Champs have had over the last decade where they don’t make the playoffs the next year.
The Colts get to avenge their loss to the Texans with a rematch at home. They opened as 5-point favorites and have been bet to -5 ½. I’ll side with Houston in this one just because of the key injuries the Colts have to deal with. How will Peyton Manning fare without his faithful and reliable outlet of Dallas Clark. He’ll also be without Austin Collie, Joseph Addai and probably Donald Brown too.
Since it’s a dead number, the best strategy is to wait until Monday to bet. Between the public loving the Colts and extended parlay risk coming from Sunday’s games, the Colts popularity and incurred liability figure to force a move higher. Don’t wait too long on Monday though, because if the Sharps like it, the game will go to -4 just because -5 and -5 ½ is a quick number to move off of not requiring full limit bets to move.