Week 9 - Sunday November 7, 2010 Italicized comments are by NICK BOGDANOVICH
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Bears are 7-3 ATS off back-to-back losses since 2005.
Bills are 23-12 ATS in November home games the previous 35 contests.
Bills are 0-2 ATS in Toronto.
NICK sez: An opener of Chicago by 2.5 when immediately to -3. It's not like sharps think Jay Cutler has suddenly figured things out. But, the Bears are coming off a bye, while Buffalo is coming off back-to-back overtime games. This game isn't a true home spot for the Bills either. So, laying something under the key number of three appealed to a lot of sharps. And, moving the game out of the basic strategy teaser window was fine for sportsbooks.
KOSMO sez: This is the easiest game (automatic win) the Bears have this season, and therefore, will probably be where they crap their pants. They play MIN at home next week and are not thinking about the Bills. Like I said last week, the Bills will play a full sixty minutes, (probably more). Take the points.
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Texans are 28-13 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.
Texans are 9-1 ATS as home underdogs since October 2006.
NICK sez: Sharps, particularly some big name sharps, have been in love with San Diego lately. They got hurt against New England, but made it all back (and more) when the Chargers covered against Tennessee last week. The same bettors were involved in driving an opener of San Diego -1.5 up to San Diego -3 here.
KOSMO sez: I’ve been leaning HOU all week, mostly because I don’t trust the Chargers on the road. I also feel the Texans can bounce-back from their loss to Indy, even with a short work week. A closer look though, has me wondering if HOU can stop the SD aerial attack, and more importantly, can they keep up with SD if they get behind? H-mmm? OK, I’m gonna flop and go with SD.
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Favorites of -6.5 or more are 35-10 ATS going into their bye since 2002 (Sean Payton 1-0).
Drew Brees is 15-10 ATS as a road favorite.
Saints failed to cover last 4 and 6 of last 7 in series.
Panthers are 36-27 ATS as an underdog the previous 63 instances.
NICK sez: Not much interest here...with New Orleans still sitting at -6.5. That actually tells you a lot. If the sharps liked the Saints, they would have jumped on anything below a TD. They didn't do that, which means they're hoping the public hits the favorite Sunday so they can step in at +7 with the home underdog. Openers near critical numbers help you determine sharp interest very quickly. They took Chicago -2.5, but didn't take New Orleans -6.5.
KOSMO sez: Here’s another game that has me scratching my head. It’s hard for me to truly find a reason CAR will win this game but, I can find a number of reasons NO should not cover. Included in those reasons is the fact that NO is 2-6 ATS this year. Also, the Saints seem to be a team that has no killer instinct. I’ll take a chance with CAR at the current line or better.
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Cards no wins or covers last 3 away TY
Cards now 1-6 vs. line last 7 on road
Vikes are 8-3 as home chalk since LY and 4-0 as DD chalk in that span
NICK sez: Not much betting interest at all here. Minnesota is at -8 and hasn't moved. Now, that's right in the basic strategy teaser window, meaning A LOT of bettors will have Minnesota -2 in two-teamers if there isn't a change. The fact that we haven't seen a change tells you that sportsbooks are okay with rooting for Arizona here. They don't trust Minnesota to play well given everything going on there of late. Sharps will see if the public nibbles on Favre before stepping in on the dog.
KOSMO sez: Well,well,well! I guess with the proper amount of juice, injuries don’t mean shit. Sooner or later it’s all gonna catch up with Mr. Farve, trust me. I’m betting sooner. Take the CARDS.
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Falcons are 3-18 ATS at home immediately following a home win the previous 21 instances.
Falcons have covered 8 of last 11 at home.
Bucs have covered last 3 at Georgia Dome and 5 of last 6 in the series.
Bucs are 8-3 vs. line since LY on road for Raheem Morris.
NICK sez: A rare dog sighting so far, with Tampa Bay currently at +8.5 after opening at +9.5. I'm interested to see how sportsbooks handle this one on Sunday. You stick Atlanta at -8.5 on the board Sunday, and the whole world will have the Falcons at -2.5 in teasers. If you put a 9 up...sharps will probably come back for more on the dog.
KOSMO sez: D-O-G! Dog,dog,dog!! WOOF!
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Teams coming off a home shutout are 19-8 ATS in their next game since 2002 (12-4 if on the road).
Jets are 10-4 ATS on the road since 2009.
Lions are 12-19 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
Lions are 6-1 vs. line TY
NICK sez: The Jets go on the list of favorites being bet early. They opened at -3.5, and went up to -4. This is actually showing STRONG sentiment for the Jets. If sharps liked the Lions, they would have taken the hook and run with it. A popular dog +3.5 just isn't going to stay up for long. This line went to +4. What's that tell you?
KOSMO sez: J-E-T-S! Jets,Jets,Jets!!
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Dolphins are 9-0 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record since 2007.
Sparano 15-4 vs. line last 19 on road
Ravens are 14-6 ATS in November home games since 2000.
NICK sez: Baltimore goes on the same list with the Jets, as a small favorite going up. The Ravens opened at -4, and rose to -5. I used this specific example in the opening. This isn't taking a position to set up a middle because so few games land on five. This is sharps thinking four is too low and getting their money in. Miami's played a couple of very physical games in a row with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Sharps apparently think they'll wear down on the road vs. another AFC North opponent.
KOSMO sez: I gotta a feeling Miami gets their first road loss this week, but don’t expect a cake-walk. This one will probably go down to the wire. The Dolphins are a tuff team and in my opinion under-rated. Miami is 12th versus the run and hasn't allowed more than 93 rushing yards to any opponent since Week 4. They’re 20th against the pass so, Air-Flacco could have a decent day. If it comes down to field-goal, my moneys’ on Miami. Dan Carpenter has 10 field goals in the past two games. When the Dolphin drive stalls, Carpenter is the go to guy. I like the ‘Phins here.
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Browns are 10-3-1 last 14 on board (3-3-1 TY)
Mangini is 8-2-1 last 11 as dog.
NICK sez: Not much interest here...though I am seeing some support for New England at -4. At the very least, this is another dog sharps aren't interested in jumping in on. Colt McCoy vs. Tom Brady? You can see why.
KOSMO sez: Repeat this to yourself three times, “If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.” OK, take a deep breath. Now, repeat it three more times. OK, now quickly answer these questions. What’s the opposite of front? And, what’s the opposite of window? There you have it!. Now go place your bet.
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Giants are 27-11 ATS on the road since 2006.
Pete Carroll 3-0 SU and vs. line at Qwest Field TY, now 10-3 last 13 vs. line as host
NICK sez: The Giants opened at -5, but jumped to -7 when it was announced that Charlie Whitehurst would start for the Seahawks at quarterback. It's tough to play well against this New York defense when you're in regular season form. Whitehurst will be rusty off the bench, and is playing for a team that hasn't been hitting on all cylinders recently anyway.
KOSMO sez: The Seahawks are coming off a big loss and are now at home with a +7 line against a team that won their last game with a negative T/O ratio. The Giants might be a little over-confident. I’ll take the points.
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Chiefs are 18-9 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.
Chiefs have won and covered last 7 and 8 of last 9 at Oakland.
NICK sez: Oakland has impressed a lot of us in Vegas and Reno the last two weeks. They opened at -1 against their division leader, and got bet right up to -2. If that holds, Kansas City +8 will be in a lot of two-team teasers. Sportsbooks may be okay with that because the Raiders have been winning by such big margins lately.
KOSMO sez: This game is a coin toss. Here in SoCal all I hear is Raiders, Raiders, Raiders! I hate “Homers”. KCs’ my play.
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Colts are 10-3 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 2007.
Eagles are 13-21 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
If dog, note Andy Reid just 2-6 in role since LY. He’s 1-3 as rare home dog since ‘07
NICK sez: Philadelphia got early support at -2.5, with the line moving to -3. That's sharps asking for a good performance from a rested home team...versus a non-conference opponent that just won a big Monday Night divisional game. What a huge preparation advantage for the Eagles! Plus, Michael Vick is expected to return, and he's been getting betting respect this year. Also, a line sitting at 2.5 invites teaser play on the Colts. Sportsbooks don't want to sweat two-team teasers involving Peyton Manning +8.5.
KOSMO sez: This question was posed to me this week, “Whom would you rather have, Peyton Manning plus points or Michael Vick?” Duh!! Here’s a better question, with two minutes left in the game and you’re down by six points, which would you rather have, Vick plus 3 points or Peyton? Double-Duh!! Yep, Colts it is.
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Teams with 3 or more consecutive losses are good bets on the road, owning a 92-69 ATS since ’00.
Favorites of -6.5 or more are 35-10 ATS going into their bye since 2002
Dallas 1-7 last 8 on board since late LY, if dog note Wade Phillips 4-7 in role since ‘07
NICK sez: Green Bay hasn't budged of 7.5 so far. Sportsbooks may bring that down to -7 just to avoid a zillion Green Bay -1.5 options in two-team teasers from a wagering public that's given up on the Cowboys.
KOSMO sez: I like DAL in this game. Can you imagine the shit these guys must be taking! It’s coming at them from all sides, the media, the ownership, Hell, I’d bet 2/3s of Texas hates them! (Well, maybe the food delivery people like them cause you just know they’re not going out in public very often.) On paper these guys are good, dysfunctional, yes, but potentially capable of performing very well. And, I gotta feeling we’re gonna see some of that potential in this game. Will DAL win? I’d say 50/50, but I do expect a full 60 minute effort.
Week 9 - Monday November 8, 2010
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Teams with a winning record playing their third consecutive road game are 35-56 ATS.
Steelers are 2-7 ATS on the road as favorites of -5 or more since 2006.
Bengals won and covered both meetings LY
NICK sez: Pittsburgh goes on the list of favorites getting support, with an opener of -3.5 going all the way up to -4.5. Again, this is BIG support because dogs get pounded at +3.5 if anybody likes them. Nobody wants a piece of this struggling Cincinnati offense against the strong Pittsburgh defense. Even if it is a third straight road game for the Steelers.
KOSMO sez: Everything in this game says PIT wins and if you happened to read last week’s CIN notes, you know exactly how I feel about that team. Ah, but then that little voice whispers in my ear again and says, “If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.”
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