RANT-FYI

Well, what can I say? What a fucked-up week of wagering that was! 4-7 in college and 8-8 in pros'. Overall for the week, I loss my ass. The really sad part is I knew it was coming. As a matter of fact, I even told everyone it was coming. Here's what I wrote in this blog on 10/5;

"Three of the last five years, not including this year, I have lost money in week four. Let me just say, I'm very sorry to all those that followed my picks. The good news is, I, historically, don't have another bad week until week thirteen (again three out of five have been losers or very small winners). Other than college, which I admit I'm not very good at, but earnestly try to improve at, I'm still satisfied with my record."

Here is what I find really interesting, I find it very hard to change a handicapping routine that has been successfully used for many weeks. There is a big difference between tweaking a system and changing the basics of the system. Even more important is that the system is not at fault at all, but rather a chance input anomaly has occurred. The question now is why does this anomaly historically shows up in weeks 4 and 13? I have yet to figure that out. After reviewing both weeks, the only thing in common is I bet the double-digit favorites and lost those games. That would not have changed the +/- that much and I would've still loss money.

It was brought to my attention that week 4 and 13 are pivotal psychological weeks. Weeks 4 and 13 are considered breakout weeks, a week where a strong team can separate its self from a division rival with a dominant win, thus setting the stage for subsequent contests. Playing an inferior team and winning, apposed to battling an equal or superior team with a chance to lose, has a immediate positive effect on a team's psyche. While I agree with this premise, I see this as mere cannon-fodder when handicapping games because this idea is factored into the posted line and will probably have more effect on the line posted the following week.

I've checked the family tree and yes there is a history of brain-fartitis. So, this little problem could continue on for many years. I have marked weeks 4 and 13 as "pass" weeks for future reference. That doesn't mean I won't wager though. It just proves family history has some value.