I wanted to share this info with you guys.
Use it how you would like, but did you know:

Chicago has never, ever been a home dog of over 3 points in Chicago when they had a winning record. Ever. But now, when Chicago is in the playoffs and has a great team this year, they are a dog of over 3 points at home?

and

 Since 1980 in the Conference Championship round, there has been only one team who was a home underdog of over 3 points, and that was the 2008 Arizona Cardinals.

So let’s talk a bit about those Cardinals:

 The Cardinals were renowned in 2008 for being the worst playoff team in the field and possibly history (per the pundits). They stumbled into the playoffs losing 4 of their last 6 games, 3 of which were losses of 20+ points.

 They won their wildcard game and then went on the road and upset Jake Delhomme in Carolina, and were ready to head to the #1 seeded NY Giants, but the Eagles upset the Giants and so, since Arizona was a higher seed than Philly, Arizona hosted the game.

 Arizona had already lost to Philly earlier that year 48-20, so Arizona was a 3.5 point dog and beat Philly outright.

 So, since Arizona was considered the worst playoff team ever, since they already lost to the team they were playing 48-20 a few weeks prior, since they pulled off a huge upset to make it to this round, and since they were not a team seeded high enough to host the game, they got lucky because the higher seeded team was upset by the Eagles, for all these reasons, Arizona was getting over 3 points (3.5) at home. (And Arizona beat Philly outright in the game.) And they are the only team since 1980 to be a home dog of over 3 points.

 The situation with Chicago is totally different than that of Arizona. Chicago was a solid team this year, with a first round bye, who handled the Seahawks at home last week and has beat GB already this year.

 Simply put, whether you look at the fact that Chicago has never been a home dog of this many points with a winning record, or the fact that no home team has been a home dog in the CC round since 1980 of this many points with the season the Bears have had, you have to admit the line value is on Chicago’s side here.

 We know why Vegas sets lines like they do, but I bet not many of you found this line to be completely unprecedented. But that is exactly what it is...

posted by aiverson @ the rx nfl forum 1/22