PICKS-1/23 NFL (FINAL)

CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYS 1/23

Before I start I want to explain a few things about gambling. As a gambler you must decide a couple of things before making a wager. First, you must decide if there are any advantages to either side of the wager. (Who has the better QB, defense, rushing, passing ect;). Secondly, you need to evaluate the risk-to-profit aspect of the wager. Risk-to-profit, by my definition, is the amount of money you are willing to bet for the expected return. In other words, the confidence you have in winning the wager. The idea is to risk the least amount possible, and win, for the largest gain.

Another way to look at this is choosing the correct type of wager. (Which bet will return the most money for the amount wagered). Conventionally, betting on football you have two types of wagers to consider; against the spread (ATS) and money-line (ML). I’ll assume that most of you understand the differences in these types of wagers. So, let’s explore the risk-to-profit values.

ATS wagers are basically a 1:1 wager (- the vig). Bet $1, win a $1. Bet a $1, lose a $1.10. A ML bet is an odds bet, meaning the house calculates an amount they will pay, per $100 bet, if that teams should win. (+200 = 1:2, -200 = 2:1). Dogs are always +money, because they are calculated to have a lesser chance of winning. Favorites are always –money, because they are calculated to have a greater chance of winning. The bottom line is you must risk more money to bet a team with a greater chance to win.

There is also a lesser known way to wager. In Las Vegas, you can buy a line. This is not the same as buying a ½ pt. or more and adding it to the ATS line, (which costs you more vig). I’m talking about picking your team and setting your own line. An example would be, you like the Bears over the Packers a lot. As a matter of fact, you think the Bears will win this game outright by at least a touchdown and have $600 to wager on the game Now, you could just bet the Bears ATS at +3.5 (1:1) or SU at +165 (1:1.65) or both, splitting the money up, as you feel, across the two bets. On a bet where you split the money 50/50, and won, you’d pocket a return of $1395. But, what if you could also bet the Bears at -3 at +400 (1:4). (I refer to this as a Reverse-Line Bet. Just ask the sportsbook. Tell them you want to bet the Bears at -3 and they’ll give you a line.) Now, by placing $200 on the ATS, ML and on the -3 line, and winning, you’ll show a return of $1930. You still only risk $600, but you now have $535 more in your pocket! The point here is how much confidence you have in your pick and knowing how to wager.

THE PICKS:

CHICAGO+3.5 / ML+165 / REVERSE-LINE-3

As I explained above, I really like the Bears in this game. That said, this game could easily be decided on turnovers. I’ve mentioned momentum as being a major factor in play-off games many times and this one is no different. The Bears have it now. They are facing a Packer team that has to be getting a little road weary and may be ready for a performance bounce. Add to that, the Bears were held to just 3 points in their last contest in GB and surely have a taste of revenge in their mouths. Cutler has been smarter with his passing of late and I don’t expect any great mental lapse here. The big question is Martz. If he’s smart and calls for lots of running plays, Chicago’s chances to win outright improve dramatically. A friend of mine said, “The winner of this game will ultimately look like the loser.” He was referring to the defensive battle that will take place in this game. And, I totally agree. I can see a Take No Prisoners kind of attitude from both teams for the whole game. That tells me the Bears will make a defensive statement to their fans or die trying.

I’m gonna shoot the sherbet and bet all three lines BIG. (ATS, ML & REVERSE-LINE)

KEY TREND: Teams coming off wins of 21-plus points in the playoffs are 4-9 against the spread in their next game since 2002.

NEW YORK+3.5 / ML+160 / REVERSE-LINE-3

I’m thinking this Super-Bowl should be called “THE SLICK VICK BOWL OF CHAMPIONS”. Because in my estimation the championship Dogs will be fighting it out on Feb. 6^th.

OK, enough already.

You can say what you want about Mark Sanchez, the fact remains he’s had a hellava year for a sophomore. And, if he can lead his team to a Super Bowl victory, he'll be exactly where Ben Roethlisberger was in his second season. I guess that’s not really a fair comparison, but my point is he has shown signs of uncommon maturity in his play this year. The Jets have sent the perennials home for the winter and the last remaining giant looms before them. A giant that claims to be ready with all weapons drawn. (Holy Crap! Sounds like I’m writing a fuckin’ novel.) Here’s the ticket, I’m not convinced the Steelers can blow this team out, period! The Jets have already beaten them this year, (“Yeah, but we didn’t have our whole team in that game.” Jesus, if I hear that one more time this week I’m gonna make them buy beer!) That in its self tells me the Jets have no fear of Pittsburgh. The Steelers OL is, to say the least, questionable and more accurately could be describe as just plain old terrible. The Rexster knows this and how to use the blitz and that should at least keep Big Ben dancing in the backfield. Can the Jets run against the Steelers? Nope! Can the Steelers run against the Jets? Nope! So, in an all air attack game do you go with the best receivers or the best defenders? I’ll take the defenders.

Put me down on the Jets and once again on all three lines, but I’ll make this one a NORMAL bet. I don’t have the same confidence in this match-up. Kickers may be king. (ATS, ML & REVERSE-LINE)

KEY TREND: Teams coming off a straight-up win in the playoffs as underdogs of seven or more are 6-2 against the spread the following week since 2002.