DIVISION PLAYS: 1/15-16
SOME DIVISION NOTES:
Last year's success by three of the four home favorites in the division round reversed a recent pattern that had seen road underdogs cover 10 of 12 games between 2006-08. For most of their history, Division Round games have been the territory of home teams and favorites (almost always one and the same), but that dominance is not as pronounced as it once was. Even with last year's subpar flameout by the road dogs, they've still held a 17-11 spread advantage over the home chalk in division-round games since 2003.
More than half of the division-round games (72 of 140) since 1975 have been decided by more than 10 points.
PITTSBURGH-3
This was the toughest game of the week-end for me to handicap. The past eight Baltimore-Pittsburgh battles have been decided by: 3, 3, 3, 3, 9, 4, 3 and 6. As much as I hate to wager on any team off a bye, I feel the Steelers will actually benefit with the added rest in this case. The key is whether or not Roethlisberger will be able to avoid taking sacks and I’m hoping the added rest will make a difference. The Home Team has won 14 of the last 18 meetings (Flacco 0-5 vs. Roethlisberger).
I’ll make this a normal sized play at -3, but may add a little more if the line drops to -2.5 or less. (You could buy down a ½ point at added juice, but this line could easily fall closer to game time.)
KEY TREND: Ben Roethlisberger is 7-3 ATS in the playoffs (4-2 as a favorite).
GREEN BAY-3 (REVERSE LINE BET) - +120 ML
OK, I’ve heard all the talk about how great Matt Ryan’s record is at home and how the Michael Turner will easily be able to run the ball against a struggling GB run defense. But, consider this; Atlanta's pristine home record isn't exactly legitimate. Most of Matt Ryan's home wins involve beating terrible teams and Rodgers hasn't lost a game by more than three points all year. Add to that, Atlanta is 18th against the run, suggesting to me, at least, that neither team will have running game advantage. So basically, I’m expecting a repeat of their last match-up with some added twists. In the last match-up the Packers simply beat themselves with eight penalties and a costly fumble at the Falcons' 1-yard line. But Green Bay has really cleaned up its act recently; the team has been whistled for just 11 penalties in its previous three games. And finally, add momentum. This is no fluke; hot, battle-tested road teams understandably fare very well against flat opponents coming off a bye. Unlike the Pittsburgh game, the bye works against the Falcons who consider themselves a team of destiny.
I’ll make this a big play with a reverse-line bet and a ML bet and if the line goes up to +3 at game time, I’ll buy the ½ point to +3.5 for another big play.
KEY TREND: Playoff teams coming off a road win in Round 1 are 7-2 ATS in Round 2 since 2005.
SEATTLE+10
I’m not gonna waste time explaining this pick.
Just consider these trends;
1. The Bears haven't been favored by more than 6.5 points all year.
2. Teams coming off a straight-up win in the playoffs as underdogs of seven or more are 6-1 against the spread the following week since 2002.
3. Home favorites in the playoffs coming off one loss are 6-13 against the spread; 3-9 ATS after a bye.
4. Winners of non-divisional, same-site rematches in the playoffs are 17-8 straight up; 4-1.
5. Playoff teams with a week off are 10-18 against the spread since 2003 (7-13 since 2005).
6. Jay Cutler is 10-22 ATS as a favorite.
‘Nuff said! This will be a big play for me.
NEW ENGLAND-8.5
I’d normally take the DOG with anything over seven points, but sexy Rexy opened his mouth earlier this week and challenged Brady and the Pats to run the score up on the Jets.
This is strictly a beer bet. Hopefully I’ll be drunk by the time this game starts and won’t need the money.
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