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Friday, January 7, 2011

PICKS-1/8&9 NFL (FINAL)

WILD-CARD PLAYS:

KANSAS CITY-3 (REVERSE LINE BET) - +145 ML

I see this game as being won in the 4Q. Baltimore’s defense has looked very tired late in their last three games. If the line moves up to 3.5 I’ll also take KC+3.5. The money is heavy on BAL at 86% and this sets up for a reverse line bet. (Go to the window and ask for KC-3 and they should give you a line something like +300). You can also bet the ML at +145 if they won’t give you a reverse line bet. I’d play both. Be bold to win gold!

KEY TREND: Dogs in NFL Wild Card round contests playing off a straight up season ending loss as a favorite tend to bounce back up off the carpet, going 14-4.

SEATTLE+10.5

I’m anticipating this line to move to at least +10.5 or better. If you can’t get at least +10.5 it’s a NO BET. The ½ point is BIG! I feel they may not win this game, but should be able to keep it within the number. NO has not been a cover machine this year, posting a 6-10 ATS record for the season and a 1-2 ATS record as a double-digit favorite (all DD games were played at home, with the single cover coming against Seattle). I’d wait until the last minutes before the game to make this bet. I won’t play this big but, I like my chances with +10.5.

KEY TREND: Saints are 3-9 ATS as double-digit favorites under Sean Payton.

NEW YORK @ INDIANAPOLIS

I don’t like this game at all. Both teams can’t be trusted. IND at home at-2.5 just smells a little fishy to me. If the line was -3.5 I might consider a small wager on the Jets.

KEY TREND: Peyton Manning is 4-9 ATS in the playoffs (excluding games against terrible QBs: Jake Plummer, Trent Green, Rex Grossman).

GREEN BAY-3 (REVERSE LINE BET) - +130 ML

Same play as KC, except not as big. GB seems to be clicking at the right time with wins over NYG and CHI and an impressive game against NE (which they should have won). Conversely, the Eagles have struggled in their last two games, losing to MIN and DAL (mind you, Vick didn’t play against DAL). The interesting thing about the two Philly loses is they were against 3rd string QBs (MIN-Webb & DAL-McGee). I’ll go with the team who has momentum.

KEY TREND: This Green Bay-Philadelphia battle is a rematch of Week 1. You know I had to research how the winners of non-divisional, same-site rematches fared in the playoffs. Well, since 2002, the victors are 16-8 straight up; 3-1 if we're talking about a road winner. (thanks Walt)

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