WEEKLY NOTES & KEY TRENDS
This is a bad match-up for the Cowboys. Specifically, this is a bad match-up for Tony Romo and his cracked ribs in the form of Ndamukong Suh and the Detroit defense.
Cowboys are 1-5 ATS after Monday Night Football since 2007.
The Jaguars defensive line does match up well against the Saints offensive line, but if Jacksonville can get to Brees early enough, the Jaguars could have a shot at this. And, that's a BIG “if”.
Jaguars are 9-1 ATS coming off a 2-game road trip the previous 10 instances.
The 49ers have made a living capitalizing on mistakes of their opposition, and it helps that their special teams are among the best in the NFL right now.
Do you really think the Rams can survive an 0-4 start, ask yourself if they can make up ground with an 0-7 mark. Next week, the Rams are on a bye. After that, though, the Rams go on the road to face the Packers and Cowboys before returning home to face the New Orleans Saints.
The Rams just lost the spread by 25-plus points. Teams coming off a spread loss of 25-plus are 80-44 against the number the following week as long as they aren’t underdogs of seven or more.
Redskins are 10-6 ATS after losing to the Cowboys since 1997.
This week is primed for a big game from Chris Johnson and that means max pressure on a weak Cleveland linebacking corps. The Browns front four is playing the run better than expected, but they are still prone to giving up big gains and currently rank No. 28 overall against the run.
Matt Hasselbeck is 13-21 ATS off back-to-back wins.
A Bills loss at Cincinnati could lead to a train wreck over their next seven games. The Bills face Philadelphia next week at home and then take to the road for four games in a six-game stretch. M-mmm. My favorite sandwich, “let down” on rye.
Bills are 13-6 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.
Bengals are 14-6 ATS as underdogs since 2009.
The Chiefs have allowed a league-worst 109 points and are giving up 123 yards per game on the ground. That's a combination that could produce a career day for the NFL's best running back.
Kansas City had ZERO first downs in the opening half at San Diego on Sunday.
If rookie head coach Ron Rivera goes back to Chicago,where he was defensive coordinator in 2006, and knocks off the Bears with a rookie quarterback, everyone in Chicago will wonder why Rivera isn't their current head coach and how much longer they will have to wait until Smith gets the boot.
Fade favorites of more than three points if they have a divisional game with the line at a pick or as a dog the following week (Bears at Lions in Week 5).
Cutler is now 11-22 against the spread as a favorite.
The Steelers rank No. 23 in the NFL right now in rushing offense, and that's not a good sign when going against a Houston defense that has been very good against the pass this season.
Ben Roethlisberger is 14-8 ATS as an underdog.
Matt Ryan holds a 21-2 record in the Georgia Dome. Remove him from the artifical turf and expose him to the elements, and he turns into a 13-13 quarterback. In two road starts this year, Ryan is 0-2, with losses to the Bears and Buccaneers.
Mike Smith is 3-0 against the spread on the West Coast, including a 34-18 victory at Qwest Field last year.
Expect heavy doses of Manning to Nicks, followed by power running from Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs in the fourth quarter.
Cardinals are 13-4 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt.
Miami has been a much better road team than home squad the last few years and really should have beaten Cleveland a week ago. Rookie running back Daniel Thomas would seem to be primed to wear down that thin Chargers' defensive line.
Tony Sparano is 6-1 against the spread in his second straight road game after a loss in the first one.
New England should have no trouble putting up points on the Raiders, as Oakland is allowing 27 points per game this year—most of those coming through the air.
Tom Brady is 22-11 against the spread after a loss; 4-1 ATS if he's playing as a road favorite.
If you look closely, teams rarely put back-to-back elite performances together. After the Ravens completely dismantled the Steelers 35-7 in Week 1, they came back and laid an egg against the Tennessee Titans in losing 26-13. In Week 3, Baltimore came out like gangbusters again and embarrassed the St.Louis Rams 37-7. Now, they face a talented, but inconsistent, Jets team.
Jets are 13-9 ATS on the road and 10-6 ATS as underdogs since 2009.
The major knock on Tampa is that it does struggle to score early in games. Couple that with an offensive line that's just OK, and the Bucs could face disruptions from Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis off the edge.
Buccaneers are 8-15 ATS off back-to-back wins since 2003.
Denver has the toughest task this week as they head out to Green Bay. If they drop the game and fall to 1-3, no one will care about the excuses and no one will consider them a legitimate threat to the Chargers, or even the Raiders but, we will have to endure more talk about you-know-who.
September 28, 2011
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
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NFL Tech Trends - Week 4
September 28, 2011
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
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