Well, that's more like it. Nice little bounce back from week1. Would have been better had CHI covered the +13 I had on a teaser card with a friend. (CHI was the only loser on a 10 teamer).
Enough back slapping. Let's take a look at this week's games. We have 8 divisional match-ups, a couple of questionable QB's, a first time QB starter and at least two Double-Digit lines to digest.
As for the divisional match-ups , I suggest you peruse this week's Trends post. Make sure you read the comments to get all the information available. Also remember, these are trends from previous years and previous teams and should be used to only indicate a team's attitude facing the present situation.
OK, QBs. As of today, there are still some questions as to whether or not Vick and Romo will play. The lines in both games basically hasn't changed from the opening and in my opinion, probably won't regardless who plays QB for either team. At any rate, it won't effect my choices for these games. Blaine Gabbert is slated to start for the Jaguars. Although this is his first NFL start, and we all know what that could mean, I consider this move an upgrade over McKlown! We'll see.
I have a serious love-hate relationship with Double-Digit lines. You see, you only get to consider them against very bad teams. (Nothing profound in that statement, Einstein). The trick is to understand that the line is a perception of public sentiment. Maybe I should give you an example. Tom Brady and the NE Patriots are a -8.5 favorite over the Bill right now, gobbling up 73% of the side money. Now ask yourself this, what percentage would the Pats garner if the line was, let's say, -10? -13? My bet is it would probably be very close to the same. Why? Because the Tom Brady led Patriots are a scoring machine and everyone knows that. But, the truth is this year the Bills have scored more points in the first two games than the Pats. They also have done it in fewer plays from scrimmage and have controlled the ball on an average offensively 5:10 minutes per game better than Tom Brady and the NE Patriots. (I just love saying "Tom Brady and the NE Patriots". Think about it, ESPN, the NFL Channel and FoxSports all make sure you know it. Suggesting that without Super Tom the NE Patriots are just another team. ------ Sorry, I got side-tracked.) My point here is, the Pats would still be perceived by the public as the better team, but at -13 a gambler sure wouldn't think so. Be careful this week.
Let's get to this week's picks. You know the rules.
ALL BETS ARE IN INCLUDING MNF.
NOTE: The line in the MIA/CLE game flopped. Now is MIA -1.5.WAS is now a BIG BET +3.5| Week 3 - Sunday September 25, 2011 |
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| Week 3 - Monday September 26, 2011 |
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NCAAF: USC @
ARIZONA STATE -2.5 WINNER!!!
REMEMBER! This is a FADE BET.
I'm a perfect 0-2 so far.
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