Las Vegas Sharps Report-NFL Week 9

Las Vegas Sharps Report-NFL Week 9

Time once again for another look at what sharps (professional wagerers) in Las Vegas are thinking about this week’s NFL games based on the market moves. Four teams have byes this week: Carolina, Detroit, Jacksonville, and Minnesota.

ATLANTA AT INDIANAPOLIS: An opener of Atlanta -8 fell down quickly to Atlanta -7. I'm hearing that a few factors were in play. Some sharp Power Ratings don’t have Atlanta as 8 points better than Indianapolis. Plus, a line of -8 would make Atlanta -2 a very popular choice in two-team teasers…and sportsbooks don’t want to ask any of the “Suck for Luck” teams to have to win outright for them. The total has dropped from 45 to 44 because the math guys don’t figure the Colts to play many shootouts without Peyton.

TAMPA BAY AT NEW ORLEANS: An opener of New Orleans by 7.5 is up to 8.5 or even 9 in some places as we write this. Sharps believe that the public will want to bet the Saints in what is both a bounce-back spot (off the St. Louis loss) and a revenge spot (off an earlier loss to the Bucs). There was no way the line was going to go down to the critical number with those factors in play. So, sharps took an early position to try and lock up -8 and -9 in middles should the game move all the way to Saints by 10 or more, at which time we would see sharp money pour in on the Bucs. If the line doesn’t go to nine everywhere, New Orleans will be one of the most popular two-team teaser choices we’ve seen in quite a while. The total has dropped from 52 to 50, which is odd for an indoor game, but not as odd for a divisional grudge rematch.

CLEVELAND AT HOUSTON: Not much interest here. We can say that the sharps DON’T like Cleveland…because an opener of +10.5 didn’t come down to the key number of ten right away. The little money that’s come in has been on the favorite, creating Cleveland +11 in some spots. Tough road trip for the Browns. Sharps don’t have any faith in them at the moment. Sharps generally like Houston, but not at tall spreads given their offensive inconsistency this season and a general reluctance by sharps to lay big numbers (see New Orleans last week).

NY JETS AT BUFFALO: Not much interest here. Some Buffalo money hit at -1.5, moving the line to -2 most places. But, there wasn’t enough passion to reach -2.5 or get anywhere near the full field goal. The Jets money is waiting to see what they can get because one and two are such rare victory margins, they might as well wait to see if the public bets the home favorite.hat's not likely to happen here though, because Buffalo isn't a big public team and hasn't won over the squares as yet, especially in this spot against a quality divisional rival. The total is down a point from 45 to 44 with a nod to both defenses playing well at the moment.

MIAMI AT KANSAS CITY: Miami got some “defensive dog” support at an opener of +5.5. The line is down to +4 most places. Kansas City is on a short week after a big Monday Night divisional win. Miami is playing a second consecutive road game after a trip to New York last week. Neither team is in a great schedule spot. The total is up from 39 to 40, suggesting good weather, or tired defenses. A bit surprising to see the line move in the direction of the dog , but Miami is still getting support from sharps despite their record, as they are at least competitive as of late, and KC not getting respect as they're seen as more lucky than good as of right now.

SAN FRANCISCO AT WASHINGTON: San Francisco sure is making a lot of trips East this year! That may be why sharps liked the home underdog at the opener of +4.5. Washington is down to +3.5. Not enough support yet to move down to the key number of three. Were that to happen, San Francisco money would start coming in. Many sharps are now believers in coach Jim Harbaugh’s team. They prefer to find better value spots than “road favorite in a bad body clock game.” however. The total has dropped from 39 to 37.5, which is VERY low for what’s been a high scoring 2011 season in the NFL. That suggests a lot of respect for these defenses…and an expectation for conservative offense from both squads. I'm again surprised at the line movement in this game given how bad the Skins have looked (with a ton of injuries at key spots as well)and how good the Niners have played recently, but sharps generally root for the underdog, even one as ugly as this.

SEATTLE AT DALLAS: Seattle got early support at +12.5. We’re now seeing +12 or +11.5 everywhere. Some of that is old school money that bets every double digit dog because of long term percentage value. But Tavaris Jackson is starting to move the ball when he’s on the field for Seattle as well, and their defense has played well recently too(their offense had 2 pick six's last week, so the Defense gave up only 20). Remember, this team beat the Giants in New York. That may offer up some backdoor value. Dallas money is likely to hit over the weekend because the public likes betting big name teams in bounce back spots. Not many position-takers this week though, which may suggest Seattle is getting more respect than the short line move was hinting at (NO-Rams still fresh in memory). The total is up from 42.5 to 44…the result, I think, of Seattle’s more wide open play when Jackson is on the field.

DENVER AT OAKLAND: Serious support for Oakland off an opener of -7. It’s tougher to move off key numbers like three and seven than other numbers. This game FLEW off the opener to -8 or -8.5, and even -9 in some places. Tim Tebow really did look that bad last week! And Carson Palmer has now had several days to get used to his teammates and a system he was already pretty familiar with. We would expect to see some sharp money come in at +10 or better should the line move that high, which is a real possibility given what i'm hearing. There is just NO respect for Tebow among the Sharps I spoke with, and Denver's usually consistent run offense has been absent this year. If the line settles at Oakland -8.5, then the Raiders are going to be a popular team this week, both straight up and in a plethora of two team teasers at less than a fg against Tebow.

CINCINNATI AT TENNESSEE: Not much interest here because Tennessee -3 seems like a solid number. The Titans would likely get market support at -2.5. Cincinnati would be VERY popular at +3.5 because their defense has performed well and Tennessee has been inconsistent. To this point, the support has been for the dog at +3. The total is up from 40 to 41.5, which is odd for these two teams. Must signal a good weather forecast, and maybe an expectation for softer defense from Cincinnati in a tough second road game spot, or improved QB play from the veteran Hasselbeck and the rookie Dalton, or just that games have been mostly on the high side this year.

ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: Money has come in on St. Louis and the Under pretty hard since Arizona announced that Kevin Kolb probably wouldn’t play this weekend. Everyone remembers how bad the other options in Arizona at QB are, and St. Louis won respect with an upset of New Orleans last week. It would still take a miracle for the Rams to catch San Francisco at the top of the division, but some respectable outings could surely be in the offing. Note that the Ram and Under money stopped at +2 and 41.5. Look for the Rams to be in sharp teasers(at +8) if the number doesn’t scoot down to +1.

NY GIANTS AT NEW ENGLAND: The Patriots opened at -8.5, but jumped quickly to -9. There's no way sportsbooks want the whole world on New England -2.5 in teasers. There may have also been some position-taking, just in case the public comes in strong on Tom Brady in a bounce back spot. There is A LOT of Giant money out there…but it’s waiting to see if they can get at least +10 on game day. Frankly, a move of only half a point to New England at 9 suggests the sharps aren’t all that impressed with the Pats, and they’re looking to really step in on the Giants when they can at a higher number after the public and squares jump in on the weekend. True passion for the Pats would have seen a move to -10 with no buyback. The total is down from 52.5 to 51 or even 50.5. That may be weather related, because the Giants have been playing shootouts this year…which is right up New England’s alley. Yet, sharps were betting the Under rather than the Over. Curious, as neither of these teams is playing defense this year, and games have been skyrocketing over the posted totals in their games, although NE's last two have gone way under the closing number.

GREEN BAY AT SAN DIEGO: The only interest here has been on the total, with an opener of 52 dropping to 51. The lack of support for home dog San Diego at +5.5 tells you how much the sharps have fallen out of love with Philip Rivers. Remember when they bet him like crazy on the road against the Jets? Now, he’s at home against a much more vulnerable pass defense, and they won’t touch him with a 10-foot pole getting +5.5 points! A bet on the Under is also a vote against Rivers. A few guys I spoke to ARE waiting on a better number on gameday, after the public and squares bet Green Bay and will take their shot with the inconsistent home dog Chargers. Sharps HATE Norv Turner and the underachieving Chargers ... their last two outings in particular have stung some Sharps hard.

BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH: The market wants to move from Pittsburgh -3 to -3.5, and, it’s done so in some places. We’re likely to see flip flops between -3 and -3.5 with a juice penalty on the favorite at 3and the dog at +3.5, if history is any guide for a defensive grudge match like this. Pittsburgh has impressed recently, while Baltimore has lost its mojo in recent outings, and their maddening inconsistency makes it hard to lay money with them with confidence, as they seem to be on a roller-coaster since walloping these Steelers on opening day. The line solidifying at Pittsburgh -3.5 would be a big indictment of the Ravens from Vegas sharps. The total has dropped a tick from 43 to 42.

CHICAGO AT PHILADELPHIA: Philadelphia impressed last Sunday Night against Dallas, causing an opening line of Eagles -7 to move up to -7.5. It takes A LOT of money to move off a key number, especially for a prime time game It will be interesting to see if sportsbooks try to move that all the way to -9 to get the game out of the basic strategy teaser window. They would be exposed on Philly at -7, and probably on Chicago at +9. Do they want the whole world on the Eagles -1.5 to -2.5 in teasers that could finish off one week and then carry over to the next week? Awkward position. Total support on the Under so far, as an opener of 42.5 is down to 41.5.